China's Dual-Use Asteroid-Collision Research Threatens Satellites

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“The dual-use nature of this asteroid-colliding plan is obvious. While designed for scientific observation, the same capability demonstrates how a kinetic impactor could be adapted for anti-satellite operations, while proximity monitoring techniques provide a foundation for precision tracking of orbital targets,” the writer says.

“China's asteroid defense blueprint should be viewed as more than a research initiative,” he adds.“It is the cornerstone of a long-term deep-space economy strategy, linking technical validation, resource extraction, and commercial exploitation in a single chain. By projecting a vision toward 2030 and beyond, Beijing is signaling its intent to create a trillion-dollar space economy by the middle of the century.”

He says the timing of this space mission's announcement, shortly after China's Victory Day Parade on September 3, also highlighted its defense applications.

Besides, Beijing also seeks to use this space mission to increase its geopolitical influence, as it has invited more than 40 countries and organizations to participate in joint monitoring and research efforts.

Complex challenges ahead

Since the 2006 launch of its“Near-Earth Object Exploration Program,” the China National Space Administration (CNSA) has conducted feasibility studies, culminating in the current blueprint's announcement.

In 2023, China launched the 25-radar“China Compound Eye” project to extend its space detection capabilities. In the same year, the Lenghu Wide-Field Survey Telescope commenced operation, providing additional data beyond that of the Purple Mountain Observatory's telescopes, which began operating in 1934. Now it plans to hit an asteroid.

“This task will involve the launch of both an observer and an impactor. The observer will first arrive near the target asteroid to obtain detailed parameters of its characteristics,” said Tang Zhenghong, a researcher at the Shanghai Astronomical Observatory.“The impactor will collide with the asteroid at high speed.”

“Throughout the process, ground and space assets will jointly monitor the event, using high-speed close imaging to observe orbital changes, surface morphology and ejecta to evaluate the impact's effectiveness accurately,” he said.

Tang said the public should not be worried about possible debris falling to Earth, as the asteroid fragments are tens of millions of kilometers away and will remain under the dominant gravitational influence of the sun.

Pang Zhihao, a Chinese columnist specializing in space, told the Global Times that precision, prediction, and observation remain the biggest challenges in this asteroid impact mission.

“It is like trying to swat a fly tens of millions of kilometers away while both the fly and the swatter are moving at high speed,” he explained.“The spacecraft must travel for months or years, constantly adjusting its course, and still achieve an accuracy within tens of meters against a target only a few hundred meters wide.”

He admitted that the outcome is difficult to predict because scientists know little about an asteroid's internal composition.

“It could be solid rock, or it could be a rubble pile loosely held together,” Pang said.“If it is solid, the impact might only nudge it slightly. If it is a rubble pile, the force could scatter the object into fragments, complicating the situation.”

A Shandong-based writer called Huajian says in an article that China aims to achieve the kinetic impact milestone by 2030 and a propulsion-based deflection test by 2035. He says China will master full-scale asteroid orbit technology by 2045.

“This timeline aligns almost perfectly with the expected maturity of asteroid resource utilization, suggesting a deliberate step-by-step strategy that blends planetary defense with economic development,” he says, adding that China may be able to find valuable niche metals on asteroids.

“The US will not share its asteroid defense know-how with us,” Huajian writes.“On matters that concern national security and humanity's future, we must have capabilities under our own control, not rely on others.”