How Apple Stock Typically Moves During Iphone Launch Events: Will This Time Be Any Different?

Apple, Inc. (AAPL) is scheduled to host its“Awe Dropping” Fall hardware launch on Tuesday, with the tech giant's underperforming stock not picking up any momentum ahead of the event.

The livestreaming of the event will be made available through Apple's website, its official YouTube channel, and Apple TV, beginning at 1 p.m. ET.

Apple is widely expected to announce the latest iteration of its iPhone, dubbed the iPhone 17, Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch Ultra 3 and Apple Watch SE3, as well as the AirPods Pro 3. A new iPhone 17 Air will likely make its appearance, replacing the “Plus” lineup from the previous iteration. 

Analysts and Apple watchers hold mixed opinions about the products that would be unveiled at the event.“We don't expect many surprises at the iPhone 17 launch,” wrote Morgan Stanley's hardware analyst Erik Woodring in a note released Friday.

On the other hand, Bloomberg columnist Mark Gurman expects major design upgrades for the iPhone in half a decade.

Should investors brace for the event to infuse life into the underperforming stock? 

Apple's stock is still down about 4.7% despite the August rally, following the company's announcement of an additional $100 billion in domestic manufacturing investment.

The year-to-date performance pales before the 11.37% gain for the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) and the 13.53% advance by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ). 

Retail users on Stocktwits held onto the 'bullish' sentiment (66/100) toward the Apple stock ahead of the event, with the message volume perking up to 'high' levels.'

If history is anything to go by, one may have to resign to the prospect of the continuation of the subdued stock trend.

Here are the hardware launches over the past two years:

• Sept. 9, 2024 (It's Glowtime) - iPhone 16, AirPods 4, Apple Watch Series 10
• May 7, 2024 (Let's Lose) - iPad Pro 7, iPad Air 6, Magic Keyboard 2, Apple Pencil Pro
• Oct. 30, 2023 (Scary Fast) - MacBook Pro, iMac powered by M3 chip (atypical timing of 8 p.m. ET
• Sept. 12, 2023 (Wonderlust): iPhone 15, Apple Watch Series 9, Apple Watch Series Ultra 2

This time around, the stock is up 2.47% over the five sessions in the run-up to the event. While calling Apple's hardware launches typically a“sell the news” event, Morgan Stanley's Woodring said the“conservative fiscal year 2026 consensus could make the launch a positive catalyst for once. The expectations are based on his premise that the company will modestly raise iPhone prices for the first time in seven years. 

The analyst expects a $100 price increase for the iPhone 17 Air over the iPhone 16 Plus, with a starting price of $999 for the 256GB storage option. A 1TB iPhone 17 Air SKU would be priced at $1,399, he said. 

Woodring also expects the company to eliminate the 128GB storage SKU for the iPhone 18 Pro, raising the starting iPhone 17 Pro price to $1,099 (at 256GB), $100 higher than the lowest storage iPhone 16 Pro SKU.

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