Report Reveals Arctic Shipping Surge Drives Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increase

(MENAFN) Shipping activity in the Arctic has surged dramatically between 2013 and 2023, significantly increasing greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions, a new report from Istanbul University reveals.

Led by Cem Gazioglu, director of the university’s Marine Sciences Institute, and researcher Irsad Bayirhan, the study explores how the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice, driven by climate change, is reshaping global maritime routes.

Over the past decade, the number of ships navigating the polar region has grown by 37%, from 1,298 in 2013 to 1,782 in 2023. Black carbon emissions have also risen, from 193 tons in 2015 to 199 tons in 2020, with projections suggesting they will reach 204 tons in 2023.

The study further indicates that carbon dioxide emissions from vessels traveling the Northern Sea Route are expected to increase by 1.76 times by 2050 compared to 2020, reaching 5.5 million tons.

NASA data confirms that Arctic sea ice has been shrinking every month since 1979, with some models predicting the North Pole could be completely ice-free year-round by the period between 2081 and 2100.

According to the Istanbul University analysis, Arctic routes could slash shipping distances between Asia and Europe nearly in half, reducing fuel consumption compared to traditional routes via the Suez and Panama canals. However, the report cautions that the concentrated emissions in the Arctic could inflict severe damage on the region's fragile ecosystems.

The study identifies several potential threats to Arctic wildlife, including "high carbon emissions, oil spill risks, invasive species carried by ballast water discharges, and noise pollution," all of which could lead to irreversible environmental harm.

Gazioglu, in an interview with media, emphasized that maritime transport currently accounts for approximately 3% of global carbon emissions, a figure that could rise as more Arctic routes open. He explained, "Shortening trade routes may lead to short-term reductions in fuel consumption; however, emissions from ships pose serious risks to the delicate balance of the Arctic ecosystem," adding that noise pollution further exacerbates the pressure on vulnerable habitats.

He urged policymakers not to prioritize Arctic passages solely for economic or political gains. "The Arctic ecosystem is far too sensitive to be tolerated by methods like carbon credits. Countries should take up the responsibility," Gazioglu stated.

Bayirhan noted that the ongoing melting of glaciers has spurred more maritime activity in the region, with further increases expected in the coming years. "To create a more sustainable system for maritime transport, we need to evaluate all the components involved so that measures can be taken without endangering the maritime ecosystem in the Arctic and the creatures living here, while also ensuring the effects of climate change are not exacerbated," he said.

He also referenced reports from the EU, which highlight the need for preventive actions to avoid irreversible environmental damage. "Emissions generated from extracting non-renewable resources, these resources’ scarcity, and the further emissions from burning these resources increase the likelihood of negative scenarios for the environment," Bayirhan added.

"The Arctic ecosystem faces direct and indirect effects from the rising economic activity, as well as the changes induced by climate change — disasters, noise pollution, and rising market demand add stress on the ecosystem and threaten the region’s biodiversity," he concluded.

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