Indian Real Estate Faces Turmoil Amid Global Trade Tensions

The Indian real estate market is under increasing pressure, with housing sales plummeting by 20% in major metropolitan areas. Data from ANAROCK reveals that only 96,285 homes were sold in Q2 2025, a sharp decline from 120,335 sales recorded in the same period the previous year. The downturn highlights a growing sense of buyer hesitancy, fuelled by external factors like tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have disrupted market stability.

A significant driver of the decline is the mounting uncertainty surrounding global trade dynamics, particularly the new 25% tariffs on key imports. These tariffs are expected to have a ripple effect on several sectors, including real estate, with the affordable housing market feeling the brunt. The tariffs impact micro, small, and medium enterprises -a key demographic for the affordable housing segment-further limiting purchasing power in this sector.

The sharp drop in home sales comes amid skyrocketing property prices. According to ANAROCK, the average price of residential properties in the seven largest Indian cities has increased by 39% over the past two years. Prices jumped from INR 6,470 per square foot in Q2 2023 to INR 8,990 per square foot in Q2 2025. The rapid price surge is another contributing factor to the decline in transactions, as many potential homebuyers are now priced out of the market, especially in the affordable housing sector.

Amid this turbulence, the Reserve Bank of India has opted to maintain its current repo rate at 5.5%, a move that has been closely scrutinised by both the real estate and finance sectors. Analysts had speculated that a rate cut could help rejuvenate the housing market by lowering mortgage rates, especially for those looking to buy within the affordable segment. However, the RBI has opted for caution, mindful of the ongoing global trade tensions and the potential ripple effects on the Indian economy.

Despite the market challenges, there is still hope that long-term confidence in the Indian real estate sector may prevent further deterioration. While short-term factors like interest rates and tariffs play a critical role, a segment of buyers continues to prioritise long-term investment in property. Experts suggest that the market may see a resurgence, particularly if developers introduce more flexible payment schemes and attractive offers during the upcoming festive season. These strategies could help ease affordability concerns and stimulate demand, especially in an environment where many buyers are seeking stability rather than short-term savings.

For developers, the key to weathering the current storm lies in balancing price sensitivity with buyer confidence. Offering more affordable housing options, particularly in emerging suburbs and tier-2 cities, may provide a strategic path forward. As large-scale developers attempt to retain buyer interest, creative financing options, including extended payment plans and discounts, could be key in sustaining sales. However, the central government and the RBI's policy decisions in the coming months will remain critical to shaping the trajectory of the sector.

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