Tensions between Ukraine, Russia prepare everyone for undesired yet needed war

(MENAFN) Ivan Timofeev warns that while no one wants a full-scale war, global powers appear to be steadily preparing for one. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent push for a peaceful resolution in Ukraine underscores a stark truth: the paths to ending the conflict are narrowing. Ukraine continues to depend heavily on NATO’s military aid, while NATO countries are boosting defense budgets and expanding their arms production. These trends raise concerns that the war in Ukraine could potentially escalate into a larger clash between Russia and NATO.

Although the likelihood of such a confrontation remains low—largely due to the presence of nuclear weapons—the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is increasingly being questioned. Nuclear weapons have not been used in combat since the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, and that historical context is very different from today’s geopolitical and technological landscape. Still, many international relations experts believe that even a limited nuclear arsenal acts as a powerful deterrent, making the cost of military aggression too high for any rational actor.

In theory, Russia’s status as a major nuclear power should shield it from most external threats. The use of nuclear weapons has become a political and moral taboo, yet military strategists continue to consider worst-case scenarios behind closed doors.

The prevailing assumption is that nuclear weapons are essentially unusable and that no rational leader would engage in direct conflict with a nuclear-armed nation. But given rising tensions—especially with NATO’s involvement in Ukraine—Russia may soon be forced to reevaluate just how reliable that assumption really is.

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