(MENAFN) China’s economy expanded by 5.3% in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), demonstrating resilience amid continued external challenges, including escalating trade disputes with the US and EU. Growth was 5.4% in the first quarter and slightly slowed to 5.2% in the second quarter, still surpassing expectations of 5.1% predicted by a Reuters survey.

The World Bank forecasts China’s GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, while the Chinese government aims for roughly 5% growth this year. Analysts polled by Reuters expect growth rates of 4.6% this year and 4.2% next year.

China faces a looming August 12 deadline to secure a long-term tariff deal with the US, following a tentative ceasefire in June that paused escalating import duties. Recent negotiations have made cautious progress, with China easing export restrictions on rare earth minerals and the US resuming Nvidia AI chip exports. Yet, significant issues around military-use technology remain unresolved, and without a final agreement, supply chains risk renewed disruption with tariffs potentially exceeding 100%.

Meanwhile, the EU and China have taken steps to de-escalate trade tensions after agreeing on a temporary truce in early July. The EU delayed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles until August 1, while China responded by offering improved market access to European carmakers and loosening export controls on key raw materials like rare earths. Beijing also reduced retaliatory tariffs on EU cognac imports.

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