Thucydides Trap Averted: China Speed, Dodgy Data And The Houthis

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On April 22, 2022, Ukrainian fighters launched two R-360 Neptune cruise missiles at the Moskva cruiser, Russia's Black Sea fleet flagship. It was the largest Russian ship to sink since WWII. The Moskva carried S-300F missiles which provided long-range air defense for the Black Sea fleet then bombarding Ukrainian positions.

Ukrainian fighters have subsequently sunk or damaged additional Russian ships and a submarine with a combination of missiles and naval drones. Russia has since relocated its Black Sea fleet east, from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, largely taking it out of the fight.

In 2024, with the PLA Navy having grown from 255 to 400 ships over the past decade while the US Navy shrank from over 300 to 299 ships, China began aggressively enforcing its claim on an atoll occupied by a purposely shipwrecked Filipino vessel. China Coast Guard (CCG) ships harassed Filipino boats supplying the handful of marines stationed on the crumbling wreck.

The world saw dramatic footage of large China Coast Guard cutters water hosing and ramming small Filipino supply boats. In one incident, Chinese Coast Guard personnel boarded a Philippine supply boat and engaged in melee combat using handheld weapons. A Filipino soldier lost a thumb.

The US Navy's response was to redeploy the carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its escorts from East Asia to the Middle East. This left the Western pacific without a CSG at the height of South China Sea tensions involving a US treaty ally. Thus it was revealed that 1) the US Navy was spread very thin and 2) the US Navy was not going to be maneuvered into a showdown with China's brand-new navy and rocket force by the Philippines.

In May of this year, President Trump reached an unsatisfying ceasefire agreement with the Houthis after intensive bombing operations proved ineffective and were marred by mishaps. US Navy operations against the Houthis have resulted in the loss of three F/A-18 fighters (one to“friendly fire” and two to“accidents”), more than a dozen MQ-9 Reaper drones and more than $1 billion worth of ammunition.

The ceasefire fell well short of President Trump's promise to“completely annihilate” the Houthis. The Yemeni fighters have only agreed to refrain from attacking US Navy ships. They have continued their operations against Israeli-connected shipping. The ceasefire neutered the US Navy in the Red Sea. They could be there. Or they could not be there. It doesn't make a shred of difference.

That the Houthis fought the US Navy to a draw can only be seen as a humiliating defeat by Asia. Compare Japan (and South Korea/Taiwan/Australia) to the Instagram model who just watched her bodybuilder boyfriend get beat up by a skinny migrant worker.

According to press leaks, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby pressed Japan and Australia to clarify their intentions in a Taiwan contingency. Leaking Colby's demand shuts down Washington's pressure tactics by airing them to domestic political opprobrium in those countries. The leak was unsurprising given the US Navy's less-than-stellar performances in the Red Sea and the South China Sea, demonstrating Japan's and Australia's lack of confidence in US resolve and capabilities.

Why would anyone commit to defend Taiwan if the US itself refuses to do so? Why would Japan and Australia commit to helping a navy that hung the Philippines out to dry only to get humiliated by the Houthis? China's anti-ship missiles and drones are likely to be more effective than those used by the Houthis.

What we are witnessing is the US attempting to do hegemony on the cheap. Alliances in this situation are structurally brittle. Alliance partners want to free ride while a fading hegemon tries to buck-pass. When the hegemon has not demonstrated the resolve and cannot demonstrate the capability to shoulder all the costs, there is not much incentive for the hangers-on to help lighten the load. And without commitments from alliance partners to enter the fray, US resolve to go it alone is diminished as well.

The Thucydides trap theorizes that war is likely when a rising power challenges a dominant established power. The fear inspired by a rising power causes the dominant power to attempt to suppress the challenger, resulting in ever-increasing tensions and an inevitable path to war.

With this backdrop, many Western media reports on China begin with the stock phrase,“China, the world's second largest economy ....” While this bit of data-delusion has hamstrung efforts to contain China, it could very well prove to have been a great boon for humanity, short-circuiting the Thucydides trap with its every utterance.

Vaclav Havel said China's economic rise was so fast that“we had not yet had time to be astonished.” Calling China the world's second largest economy is a media tick that the West has yet to abandon. Any proper accounting of China's productive and consumptive powers results in an economy twice the size of the US (see here ).

Taking liberties with the UN System of National Accounts, China has flown under the radar, delaying the moment of proper Western astonishment. China is no longer the rising power but the established power. All efforts to contain China from tech sanctions to trade wars to media slander have been ineffectual if not counterproductive.