Prabowo's US-China Balancing Act Of '1,000 Friends, Zero Enemies'

Subianto served in the military during the reign of Suharto, who was also at one point his father-in-law . As Indonesia's leader, Subianto has pledged to enact a so-called foreign policy philosophy of“zero enemies, one thousand friends .” That approach stems from two main considerations.

First, he seeks to secure economic agreements that will help fulfill his promise of 8% annual economic growth . Second, he aims to strengthen defense procurement and security cooperation to bolster Indonesia's military position.

As a part of his vision, Subianto has attempted to reframe some of the considerations that have long guided Jakarta's foreign policy strategy.

For decades, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has served as Indonesia's collective security buffer , forming a crucial component of its“Mandala” – or concentric circles – foreign policy perspective.

However, the current administration has thus far appeared indifferent to using the regional body as a source of projecting power, as underscored by Indonesia's absence from the ASEAN informal consultations on conflict-ridden Myanmar in December 2024.

That is just one of several indications that Subianto is attempting to shift Indonesia's role from a regional actor to an active global player.

A crucial development in that more assertive approach came with the country's accession in January 2025 to the BRICS group of nations, the first time a Southeast Asian nation has been admitted.

In a further bid to multilateral engagement, Indonesia has initiated plans to pursue membership in two transnational economic groupings: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development , or OECD, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership .

Much of this inclination toward multilateral engagement is rooted in Subianto's worldview that can be summed up as this:“If you're not at the table, you're likely to end up on the menu.”

And yet, despite Subianto's broader multilateral ambitions, it is the US and China that remain the critical relationships.

During the early weeks of his presidency, Subianto made China his first overseas bilateral visit . It resulted in agreements between China and Indonesia worth up to US$10 billion , primarily focused on green energy and technology.

The visit, which was especially notable given that Jakarta appeared to move closer to China's position on conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea can be seen as part of a broader shift toward Beijing.

China's massive population already serves as a lucrative export destination for Indonesian goods. Since 2016, China has been Indonesia's biggest export market , beating out Japan and the US.

That shift is likely to pick up pace in light of Trump's tariffs, with Jakarta seeking to offset the increasing cost of American trade. And though Jakarta has signaled neutrality regarding the wider US-Chinese dispute, officials in Jakarta and Beijing agreed in mid-April to boost mutual defense cooperation in the South China Sea.

At the same time, the US holds a particularly important place in Subianto's mind. As a young soldier, Subianto spent time at military bases in the US, where he underwent special forces and counterterrorism training.

He was later subjected to a travel ban from the US from 2000 to 2020 on account of myriad allegations of human rights abuses related to his time in Indonesia's special forces unit, Kopassus, which led to his being forcibly discharged from the Indonesian military in 1998.

Yet the ban was rescinded after then-President Joko Widodo appointed Subianto to be Indonesia's defense minister, and he was subsequently invited to Washington in 2020 during the first Trump administration.

Washington was Subianto's second official presidential visit destination in November 2024. During his trip, Subianto met with President Joe Biden to discuss Indonesia-US bilateral relations, regional security issues and various other global matters. Subianto also had a brief phone call with President-elect Trump to congratulate him on his election victory.

That relationship with Trump is likely to be a crucial one now, especially given the stakes of the mutual trading relationship.

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The US is Indonesia's second-biggest trading partner, after China. The value of trade between the two parties amounted to about $38.3 billion in 2024, with Indonesia exporting $28.1 billion to the US while importing $10.2 billion.

Seeking to avoid tariffs of 32%, an Indonesian trade delegation has been negotiating with Trump administration officials, signaling its intent to buy more American goods, make trade concessions and even lower local content requirements on Indonesian-made goods to allow more American-made components.

Promoting pragmatism

There are, of course, ongoing differences between Indonesia and the US – not only the ongoing trade issue but also other areas, including the Israel-Hamas war . Indonesia, the largest Muslim-majority country in the world, has been a staunch supporter of Palestinian rights and highly critical of Israeli policy .

Yet even here, Subianto seemingly is open to pragmatism, with reports that the Indonesian government is floating the idea of normalizing ties with Israel in a bid to ease entry into the OECD.

In a similar vein, one can expect that Subianto will opt for pragmatism in his dealings with Trump, prioritizing Indonesia's security and defense cooperation with Washington, while sidestepping any issues that might divide them along the way.

Under Subianto, Indonesia is embarking on a foreign policy that stresses the importance of maintaining robust and active bilateral ties with the US. At the same time, it is strengthening its China relationship. And away from both, it is asserting its own independence through bolstering its position in numerous multilateral bodies.

How Subianto handles those various dynamics is likely to be a defining issue of his presidency.

Gilang Kembara is research fellow, Nanyang Technological University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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