Lingering Resentment At Unequal Treaties Stiffens Chinese Resolve

The impact of China's response has not yet been fully realized, but tariffs have already raised the specter of increased prices in the US. Many of the clothing and consumer electronics that Americans buy are shipped from China. It's possible that far from boosting Trump's popularity, these tariffs may eventually end up reversing it.

At a fundraising dinner in Washington, less than a day before he shelved plans to hike tariffs on US trading partners, Trump insisted :“I know what the hell I'm doing.” But his subsequent loss of face in pausing tariffs for other countries may mean he has no option but to double down on a tit-for-tat trade war with China.

China is his administration's go-to villain , and any delay or reversal in responding to Chinese retaliation will be a humiliation to Trump's strongman image. This suggests a tumultuous period ahead for relations between China and the US.

The tariffs will probably have a mobilizing effect on the Chinese population. A 2022 survey on public opinion in China found that people born after 1990 are more likely than previous generations to hold an unfavorable view of the US. The survey concluded that Trump's actions during his first term were much more to blame than propaganda.

Beijing has also traditionally invoked the history of the“unequal treaties” forced upon its ailing Qing dynasty in the late 19th century as a means to mobilise its population against western policies. This has been aided by how the economic demands made by Trump to China are, in the mind of the Chinese leadership, reminiscent of the demands made by the western powers of that period.

Fears of again falling prey to foreign powers play a significant role in Beijing's policies, encapsulated by what is known as China's “never again mentality .” This mentality could be used as a means to unify the Chinese population against an outside enemy in a way similar to how many US politicians have attempted to cast China as a foe.

Beijing appears to be banking on the Chinese population's supposed ability to withstand greater hardships than Western consumers as being able to give it a key advantage over Washington. However, with China's prosperity being a comparatively recent development, this ability will be put to the test.

Trump's tariffs against traditional American allies will also play into Beijing's hands on the international stage. Tokyo has discussed reducing its holdings of American treasuries, while simultaneously bolstering trade ties with China. These moves would have been unthinkable even a year ago – Japan has long been a key US ally and a regional rival of China.

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Equally unthinkable is the possibility that the EU will follow a similar path. Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, has called on Brussels to review its relationship with China. Moves aimed at sidelining China may end up isolating the US instead.

And, perhaps most concerningly, the tariffs may also undermine America's ability to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One of the key factors deterring an invasion was the threat of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods. With Trump's tariffs on China already exceeding this, Beijing has less incentive to not go after Taipei.

What liberation day has shown us is that the Chinese-American relationship has entered a stage of protracted competition, a phase that Beijing has been preparing for over the past decade. Faced with a choice between humiliation on the international stage or economic disaster at home, it would appear neither side is willing to back down.

Tom Harper is a lecturer in international relations at the University of East London .

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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