Time For Australia To Think The Unthinkable About America

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In reality, the US has had an unfortunate habit of starting unnecessary wars and undermining the RBIO . The US has never been a member of key international institutions like the International Criminal Court, and the Trump administration is rapidly withdrawing from or defunding climate and aid agencies it doesn't like.

If policymakers outside the US were still in any doubt about Donald Trump's attitude to other countries, be they supposed allies or notional foes, he helpfully dispelled any lingering illusions with his usual diplomatic sensitivity when he declared that foreign leaders could“kiss his ass .”

It is not simply that Trump is an economic illiterate surrounded by obsequious flunkies and chancers that make his administration so dangerous and disruptive, however.

On the contrary, the sheer weight of the American economy means that the Trump administration's policies will have profound consequences for the rest of the world, as the gyrations in international stock and – more ominously – bond markets demonstrate.

There is very little chance that Trump will be concerned about the damage he inflicts on the equally trade-exposed economies of Southeast Asia either, unless, of course, it has implications for the US.

In the long run, an increasingly likely recession will have impact everyone, but Trump is clearly not someone who takes a long view – except about his own longevity and the possibility of a third presidential term .

While this remains an unlikely prospect, not least because of Trump's age, Australian policymakers shouldn't comfort themselves by expecting things to return to normal. It's not even clear if there will even be another election at this stage as America flirts with authoritarianism and the celebrated democratic guardrails are steadily dismantled.

If there is one thing that really ought to be clear, it is that the US is no longer a reliable partner and that Australia's economic and strategic future is going to be determined by its relationship with the region.

Strategic and economic elites have found it difficult enough to develop deep and productive relations with their immediate, fellow middle-power neighbors . It is even more implausible to imagine Australia accepting China's offer of“joining hands” in the face of a common threat to the established order from which both countries have benefited.

Predictably enough, Defense Minister Richard Marles immediately rejected the idea. Marles is one of the government's most enthusiastic champions of the alliance generally and the increasingly unpopular and doubtful AUKUS submarine project in particular.

And yet it is the US that is overturning the old economic order and China that is trying to preserve it. In such unprecedented circumstances, perhaps policy thinking should be equally novel.