If Negotiations Among Russia, Ukraine, US Collapse, What's Next?

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The actual goal of the Ukrainian attacks is unclear. Some observers think the idea is to force Russia to redeploy forces to the Belgorod territory, taking the pressure off of Ukrainian defenses elsewhere, as in areas such as Pokrovsk.

May by ISW

Reliving Russian pressure was also part of the idea behind the Kursk salient, along with Ukraine having a territorial bargaining chip in a forthcoming possible negotiation (land for land). But that is not the whole story. Ukraine hoped to capture the nuclear power plant in Kursk, offsetting Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

The Russians were able to block Ukraine's army from getting that far and, over seven months, began to roll up Ukraine's attack. Today Ukraine's forces are almost completely out of Kursk, and the Russians have crossed the border into Ukrainian territory in Sumy.

It is too soon to predict the outcome in Belgorod. Two villages, Popovka and Demidovka, have come under multiple Ukrainian attacks. Ukraine continues to beef up its assault forces, the latest the redeployment to Belgorod of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade, suggesting that Ukraine thinks it can be successful.

Regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov says that in all Ukraine has attacked more than 20 villages. There is no word yet on losses on either side.

Ukraine might get a temporary morale boost if it can hold onto some of the villages it is attacking, but for how long no one can yet say.

Meanwhile, France and the UK, and possibly some others, are working on a new idea on injecting European forces into the conflict in support of Ukraine. The latest is for Europe (or at least those who will support the venture) to send both air and naval forces to Ukraine.

Reports say that a mission is being dispatched to Ukraine to decide where to position such forces if they are sent. Combat aircraft would be vulnerable anywhere near eastern Ukraine, considering Russia's layered air defenses. Similarly, naval forces have few options outside of Odesa, and Odesa is exposed to Russian missile attacks.

Putin has agreed to a Black Sea deal, but that would collapse if the UK and France move naval forces to ostensibly protect Ukraine. Both France and the UK have aircraft carriers, but whether they would risk such assets so close to Russia is open to considerable doubt.

It may be that the UK and France, perhaps even with the backdoor support of the United States, want to protect western Ukraine should the Russians overrun the Ukrainian army and collapse the Kiev government.

To do this both France and the UK would need support from Poland, and Polish authorities have not shown much enthusiasm for getting involved.

If the negotiations on a Ukraine-Russia deal go off the rails, as seems more and more likely, then the fallback“security guarantee” for part of Ukraine could be an option for Europe if Europe actually believes it is threatened by Russian land armies.

But air force and naval assets are only a temporary hack for the Europeans. They would have to put boots on the ground in western Ukraine. Europe does not have deployable forces in sufficient numbers (nor do they have stockpiles of weapons) to be any more than a tripwire, and the Europeans would have to expect pushback from the Russians – who may decide to attack staging areas and supply depots in Poland and Romania.

The Charles De Gaulle aircraft carrier.

Depending on how the war evolves, and how much force the Russians are prepared to bring to the conflict, Russia could achieve its territorial and local political goals in a relatively short time. The territorial goals are already spelled out by Russia. The political goal is to force NATO out of Ukraine and change the Ukrainian government to one friendly to Russia.