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Czech President acknowledges Ukraine’s much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive against Russia was never likely to succeed
(MENAFN) Czech President Petr Pavel has acknowledged that Ukraine’s much-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive against Russia was never likely to succeed. In an interview with European Pravda published on Saturday, Pavel, a former high-ranking military commander, warned that without significant changes in foreign support and military resources, Ukraine would struggle to reclaim lost territory without suffering devastating losses.
“My realistic assessment was that this conflict, without altering its current dynamics, will likely end in some form of compromise. And we are now heading in that direction,” he stated.
Pavel suggested that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was doomed from the outset due to inadequate preparation and unfavorable force ratios. “Even before Ukraine launched its large-scale counteroffensive two years ago, it lacked the necessary resources to truly succeed,” he explained. “Military strategy dictates that an attacking force needs at least a two-to-one advantage, ideally five-to-one, to be successful. At that time, Russia still held the upper hand, making it clear that Ukraine’s campaign would not achieve full territorial liberation.”
He further argued that both Ukraine and its Western allies must accept the reality that “some Ukrainian territory is currently, and will remain for some time, under temporary Russian occupation.” However, he insisted that the EU should never officially recognize Crimea or the Donbass regions as Russian territory.
Pavel stressed that while Ukraine’s ability to reclaim land remains limited, the EU must continue providing enough support to prevent further territorial losses and facilitate conditions for an eventual ceasefire and peace agreement.
In June 2023, Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive, deploying newly trained brigades equipped with Western-supplied Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks. However, Russian fortifications and extensive minefields proved overwhelming, leading to heavy Ukrainian casualties and significant losses of NATO-provided equipment. While Ukrainian forces initially captured a few small villages, all of them have since been retaken by Russia.
“My realistic assessment was that this conflict, without altering its current dynamics, will likely end in some form of compromise. And we are now heading in that direction,” he stated.
Pavel suggested that Ukraine’s counteroffensive was doomed from the outset due to inadequate preparation and unfavorable force ratios. “Even before Ukraine launched its large-scale counteroffensive two years ago, it lacked the necessary resources to truly succeed,” he explained. “Military strategy dictates that an attacking force needs at least a two-to-one advantage, ideally five-to-one, to be successful. At that time, Russia still held the upper hand, making it clear that Ukraine’s campaign would not achieve full territorial liberation.”
He further argued that both Ukraine and its Western allies must accept the reality that “some Ukrainian territory is currently, and will remain for some time, under temporary Russian occupation.” However, he insisted that the EU should never officially recognize Crimea or the Donbass regions as Russian territory.
Pavel stressed that while Ukraine’s ability to reclaim land remains limited, the EU must continue providing enough support to prevent further territorial losses and facilitate conditions for an eventual ceasefire and peace agreement.
In June 2023, Ukraine launched its long-awaited counteroffensive, deploying newly trained brigades equipped with Western-supplied Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 tanks. However, Russian fortifications and extensive minefields proved overwhelming, leading to heavy Ukrainian casualties and significant losses of NATO-provided equipment. While Ukrainian forces initially captured a few small villages, all of them have since been retaken by Russia.
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