German Election: Last Chance To Turn The Tide

(MENAFN- Gulf Times) With anti-establishment forces on the rise, the next German government may be the last one that can counter the mounting challenge from the far-right before it is too late. Yet the snap federal election tomorrow (Feb 23), following the collapse of Germany's“traffic light” coalition – comprising the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Democrats (FDP), and the Greens – is occurring against a backdrop of eroding public trust in politics as usual.
After years of economic stagnation, high levels of irregular immigration, and a series of violent attacks by illegal immigrants, opinion polls reflect growing and widespread discontent. The public's top concerns have shifted from issues such as climate change to the economy, security, and immigration. Voters clearly want comprehensive change; but will they get it?
Voter enthusiasm has been notably absent. Never before have the leading candidates been so unpopular. And the discontent is not confined to politicians' popularity ratings. Studies also show growing disillusionment with political institutions across the board. This may partly explain why so many voters remain undecided – with as many as one-third having not made up their minds just a few days before the election. Given such widespread uncertainty, a surprise outcome is a distinct possibility.
The frontrunner and favourite for the chancellorship, with 30% approval, is Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Since former Chancellor Angela Merkel's departure from politics, Merz has steered Germany's main centre-right party further rightward in an effort to win back voters who had defected to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Whether this strategy has worked or merely legitimised far-right talking points is a matter of debate. But there is no question that the AfD is capitalising on widespread anger, with its approval rising above 20% – a record for a party that German authorities suspect of extremism.
Meanwhile, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, the SPD, has been polling at just 16%, which would represent its worst election result in more than a century. The SPD is only narrowly ahead of the Greens, who poll around 14%.
Owing to Germany's 5% parliamentary threshold, the fate of several smaller parties hangs in the balance. The far-left Die Linke, the pro-business FDP, and the new left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are all polling close to this critical level. Depending on their performance – including their ability to secure direct mandates from select constituencies – the next German parliament could include as few as four or as many as seven parties. Perhaps unsurprisingly, this level of unpredictability has invited disconcerting comparisons to the notoriously unstable interwar Weimar Republic.
In terms of political mandates, the next parliament could either represent a historically low proportion of voters, or it could be deeply fragmented, featuring an unprecedented number of potential coalition partners. With all the major parties continuing to rule out co-operation with the AfD, the most likely scenario is either a CDU-led coalition with the SPD or a CDU-led coalition with the SPD and the Greens. But a minority CDU government is also possible as a last resort, though this would represent a dramatic shift away from political normalcy.
Certainly, the chancellor is the one who determines policy. But junior coalition partners in Germany have a track record of influencing coalition agreements far beyond what their numerical strength would suggest.
Germany's mainstream parties have consistently failed to convince voters to reject the far right, and this election could be their last chance to turn the tide. - Project Syndicate

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