Ukraine: Prospects For Peace Are Slim Unless Europe Grips The Reality Of Trump's World

(MENAFN- The Conversation) When EU leaders gathered for their first ever meeting solely dedicated to defence issues on February 3, in Brussels, the war in Ukraine was uppermost on their minds. Yet, three weeks before the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine is only the tip of an iceberg of security challenges that Europe faces.

War on a scale not seen in Europe since 1945 has returned to the continent. Russian sabotage of everything from critical infrastructure to elections is at levels reminiscent of the cold war. And the future of the EU's most important defence alliance, Nato, is uncertain .

In light of these challenges alone, let alone the ongoing instability in the Middle East , western Balkans and south Caucasus , it's hard to disagree with the observation by EU council president António Costa that:“Europe needs to assume greater responsibility for its own defence.”

But it's hardly a groundbreaking statement. And at the end of proceedings, the outcome of what was ultimately only an informal meeting, was underwhelmingly summarised by Costa as“progress in our discussions on building the Europe of defence”.

This does not bode well for Ukraine. US support is unlikely to continue at the levels reached during the final months of the Biden administration. In fact, ongoing debates in the White House on Ukraine policy have already caused some disruption to arms shipments from Washington to Kyiv.

Building blocs

If there is a silver lining for Ukraine here, it is Trump's continuous search for a good deal. His latest idea is that Ukraine could pay for US support with favourable concessions on rare earths, and potentially other strategic resources .

These would include preferential deals to supply the US with titanium, iron ore and coal, as well as critical minerals, including lithium. Whether this is a sustainable basis for US support in the long term is as unclear as whether it will make any material difference to Trump thinking beyond a ceasefire .

The other ray of hope for Ukraine is that there is a much greater recognition in EU capitals now about the need for a common European approach to defence. A greater focus on building a“coalition of the willing” including non-EU members UK and Norway is a potentially promising path.

But hope, as they say, is not a winning strategy. In a Trump-like transactional fashion, Brussels – in exchange for a deal on defence with London – is insisting on UK concessions on youth mobility and fishing rights. It's unlikely that this will prove an insurmountable stumbling bloc, but it will create yet more delays at a moment when time is of the essence for Europe as a whole to signal determination about security and defence.

This is further complicated by two factors. On the one hand, there is the looming threat of a trade war between the US and the EU. That the UK may still be able to avoid a similar fate, according to Trump , feels like good news for London. But it will also put the UK in a potentially awkward position as it seeks an ambitious post-Brexit reset with the EU and harbours hopes to improve relations with China.

With Trump clearly hostile towards both Brussels and Beijing, this may become an impossible balancing act for the British government to pull off.

Europe's fragile unity

On the other hand, EU unity has become more fragile. Trump's victory has emboldened other populist leaders in Europe – notably the significantly more pro-Russian Slovak and Hungarian prime ministers, Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán. The same applies to the UK, where Nigel Farage, leader of the Reform UK party – which has overtaken the ruling Labour party in the latest public opinion polls – is known for his Ukraine-sceptical views.

Fragile unity: the war in Ukraine is testing European resolve to defend Ukraine. EPA-EFE/Olivier Matthys

To that equation add a weak government in France and the likelihood of protracted coalition negotiations in Germany after hotly contested parliamentary elections at the end of February. The prospects for decisive EU and wider European action on strengthening its own security and defence capabilities right now appear vanishingly slim.

Seen in the light of such multiple and complex challenges, it is astonishing how much the EU is still trapped in a wishful thinking exercise – and one that appears more and more disconnected from reality. Contrary to Costa's fulsome pronouncements after the EU leaders' meeting, there is little evidence that the US under Trump will remain Europe's friend, ally and partner.

There's also little to suggest that the American president shares the values and principles that once underpinned the now rapidly dismantling international order. Other countries' national sovereignty, territorial integrity and the inviolability of their borders are not at the forefront of Trump's foreign policy doctrine .

If, as Costa proclaimed ,“peace in Europe depends on Ukraine winning a comprehensive, just and lasting peace”, then the future looks bleak indeed for Europe and Ukraine. At this point the EU and its member states are a long way off from being able to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win. This is not just because they lack the military and defence-industrial capabilities. They also lack a credible, shared vision of how to acquire them while navigating a Trumpian world.

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