Australia's Submarine Plans May Be Dead In The Water

According to ABC News, this situation arises due to urgent repairs and scheduled upgrades required for the aging fleet, which has been plagued by unprecedented hull corrosion. The report says two submarines are stationed at Adelaide's Osborne shipyard, where worker strikes are causing delays in their extensive maintenance, known as full-cycle docking.

Further, the report mentions three submarines are at Western Australia's Garden Island naval base, with at least one awaiting certification to return to service.

Despite these challenges, ABC News maintains that Defense Australia can meet government-directed operational availability levels, although specific submarines' precise locations and availabilities remain undisclosed for security reasons.

While Australia may hope to acquire nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) under the AUKUS framework to restore its underwater warfare capabilities, that prospect faces an uncertain future.

Asia Times mentioned this month that Australia's nuclear submarine ambitions under the AUKUS security pact face significant challenges due to a weak US production base, uncertainties from a second Trump administration and reluctance to share nuclear technology.

A recent US Congressional Research Service (CRS) report suggests that US SSNs could perform Australian and US missions in the region in lieu of Canberra's acquiring nuclear attack submarines (SSNs) under AUKUS. This arrangement would be similar to existing ones between the US and its NATO allies. The report outlines alternative plans, including forward rotations of US and UK SSNs to Australia and reinvesting funds intended for SSNs into other military assets. The report warns that if Australia's SSN plans reach a cost-accounting death spiral, it could reduce funding for other military capabilities, impacting deterrence against China.

Critics argue that the AUKUS SSN project lacks a clear strategic rationale and that Australia should leverage its distance from China instead of projecting military power into China's near seas.

US President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House raises concerns about the future of AUKUS, with potential demands for increased Australian contributions. Further, Australia's reluctance to cooperate on nuclear power complicates its SSN ambitions.

Given Australia's looming underwater warfare capability gap and the unclear future of AUKUS, Australia may have to reconsider acquiring SSNs from an alternative source.

In an article for the Strategist this month, Peter Briggs argues that Australia should prepare to acquire at least 12 French Suffren-class SSNs, as the current AUKUS plan for eight SSNs faces increasing risks.

Briggs points out that the AUKUS plan, which includes three US-built and five British-built SSNs, is unlikely to meet deadlines due to production delays and design challenges. He says that the Australian Government, elected next year, should decide by 2026 whether to switch to the French design to ensure deliveries by 2038.

He mentions that the Suffren class, already in service with the French Navy, offers a more feasible solution with its 5,300-ton displacement, 70-day endurance, and 60-person crew. According to him, this design is optimized for anti-submarine warfare and the vessel can carry missiles and special forces.

Briggs says the AUKUS SSN plan's mixed designs and oversized UK submarines, driven by reactor dimensions, are unsuitable for Australia's needs and pose significant crew and cost challenges. He adds that US and UK submarine production issues further complicate the AUKUS plan, making the French Suffren class a more practical and affordable alternative.

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He says this shift would allow Australia to maintain its SSN training programs with the US and UK while establishing a joint construction program with France to address its maritime security needs.

However, acquiring 12 French-built Suffren-class SSNs would require a radical shift in Australia's defense posture, away from the AUKUS arrangement and toward dependence on French defense infrastructure.

While the Suffren class is a capable SSN, the opportunity cost of abandoning the AUKUS framework and the need for long-term nuclear infrastructure investment makes it a politically and strategically risky option.

In view of Australia's aging Collins submarines and the unclear future of its AUKUS SSN plans, debates exist about whether the AUKUS framework was the right approach to restoring the country's underwater warfare capabilities.

In a June 2024 debate published by the United States Studies Center, Richard Dunley argues that the plan is optimal given limited alternatives. He emphasizes the acquisition of Virginia-class SSNs from the US as a“stopgap” solution that accelerates Australia's nuclear submarine capability. He also highlights the advantage of co-developing the AUKUS SSN with the UK to sustain a joint industrial base.

In contrast, Elizabeth Buchanan critiques the AUKUS SSN as overly ambitious and costly, advocating for a more practical approach centered on leveraging US and UK submarines through Australia's“pit-stop power.” This arrangement, she argues, better aligns with Australia's strategic and resource constraints.

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