China Has Cause To Be Terrified Of Rebel-Run Syria

Beyond voicing support for the Uyghur cause, HTS has no evident interest in taking on China. As such, HTS' victory in the Syrian civil war does not pose an immediate threat to China.

However, TIP militants gaining combat experience does. Chinese Major General Jin Yinan has claimed that the TIP is fighting in Syria to draw attention to the Uyghur cause and to gain combat experience so that they can one day use those fighting skills against Beijing.

The claim was confirmed when the Emir of the TIP, Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, called on Uyghurs from around the world to join the fight against the Assad regime – and China.“Today, we are helping our brothers wage jihad in Greater Syria. Tomorrow, the soldiers of Islam must be ready to return to China to liberate Xinjiang from the communist occupiers.”

Beijing claims that the TIP carried out terrorist attacks in China in 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2015. Attacks included ramming vehicles into pedestrians, stabbings with knives in public areas, car bombs, and suicide bombings.

It is difficult to verify if the group was behind all of the claimed attacks. Some were probably carried out by lone wolves disgruntled with the social-economic inequality in Xinjiang.

Nonetheless, Beijing blames the group for all of the attacks and has implemented restrictive measures, epitomized by huge detention facilities, in the Uyghur's home province in response. These strict measures will not likely keep a lid on the unrest forever, with clear signs it continues to bubble just beneath the surface.

Indeed, in 2022, China's Permanent Representative to the UN claimed that TIP-related violence was resurgent in recent years, saying,“the TIP is not only launching attacks in Syria, but is also using Syria as base to recruit and train militants to launch attacks on China and Central Asia.”

To tackle the reemergent threat, Beijing vowed to“coordinate with Syria and other relevant parties to combat TIP terrorism.” The statement was made amid reports that TIP participated in an attack that killed 112 people at a military academy in Homs last year. What the statement meant in actual practice, however, remains unclear.

Rumors of Chinese troop deployments to Syria surfaced in 2017 and 2018 , but in the end, none were deployed. In addition, while Chinese-made weapons made their way to government forces, they were either redistributed by third parties or were sold to Syria a long time ago. No direct arms sales were made after the civil war broke out.

Despite TIP's supposed rising threat to China's national security,

The only meaningful action Beijing took was to hold high-level talks with Damascus to share intelligence on the TIP's movements on a monthly basis beginning in 2016. This intelligence stream will discontinue with Assad's fall from power.

China's apparent inaction sends a message that while Beijing is concerned by the fact that if battle-hardened TIP militants – known for fighting like“lions” in Syria – make their way back to China in sufficient numbers, it will face an insurgency many times stronger than the previous one it does not believe this will happen as it is unclear the TIP can and will return to China.

On the one hand, the TIP do not shy away from this objective in their propaganda . In Syria, they have notably failed to integrate into local communities, with language being the primary barrier. Arabs are prevented from entering Uyghur villages by TIP militants because they are not“Chinese” – suggesting that they remain attached to their Chinese homeland.

On the other hand, TIP militants selling their property in China before moving with their families to Syria sent a message that they are there to stay. Furthermore, Chinese security has improved markedly in recent years, so much so that it would be difficult for militants to enter China undetected in significant numbers.

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However, the Syrian civil war's apparent end could shift the TIP's calculus. For the first time in a decade, the TIP no longer has to struggle to make ends meet in a sliver of land in northern Syria. As such, the TIP could quickly set its militant sights elsewhere.

Beijing is worried that while China itself remains out of reach, TIP militants will once again settle in neighboring Afghanistan and Pakistan. That's a high risk as the two countries have become safe havens in recent years for various terrorist organizations, including ISIS-K , Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) .

Indeed, there has been an uptick in attacks on Chinese citizens and assets abroad in recent years, especially in Pakistan . Despite the lack of available evidence, Beijing believes these attacks stem from the TIP's collusion with ISIS, al-Qaeda and the BLA to undermine China's overseas interests and investments.

Therefore, should battle-hardened TIP militants return to Pakistan and join forces with the TTP, BLA and others, as Beijing claims is already happening, it would pose a serious threat to China's strategic interests as its flagship project – the Belt and Road Initiative – runs through the country.

With Assad ousted and Russia and Iran's ability to check and contain Syrian rebel groups and their allies diminished, the likelihood of this scenario has increased exponentially.

“A
butterfly
flapping its wings in
China
can cause a
hurricane
in the Caribbean,” the old saying goes. Conversely, a frozen conflict thawing in Syria can erect roadblocks to China's global ambitions. The time has come for China to rethink its foreign policy toward Syria and further afield.

Yang Xiaotong is an assistant researcher at a Beijing-based independent think tank.

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