(
MENAFN- Daily Forex) Bearish View
Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6400. Add a stop-loss at 0.6600. Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
Set a buy-stop at 0.6510 and a take-profit at 0.6600. Add a stop-loss at 0.6400.
The AUD/USD
exchange rate remained under pressure in the past few weeks ahead of the
federal Reserve minutes, consumer confidence, and PCE inflation data. It retreated to 0.6500, down from the year-to-date high of 0.6942.
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The pair will react to the upcoming US consumer confidence data, which will provide more color on the state of the economy. Economists expect the data to show that consumer confidence rose from 108.7 in October to 112, a sign that the economy is doing well.
Another report is expected to show that new home sales retreated from 738k in September to 724k in October. The other top housing data is expected to reveal that the house price index (HPI) rose by 0.3% in September.
The other important catalyst to watch will be the Federal Reserve minutes, which will provide more information about the economy. In that meeting, the bank decided to slash interest rates by 0.25% as it works to engineer a soft landing. It has slashed rates by 75 basis points this year.
The next key AUD/USD data will come out on Wednesday when the US publishes the second estimate of GDP data. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the economy expanded by 2.8% in Q3.
The other important economic data expected this week will be the headline and core durable goods orders. There will be no important economic data from Australia/USD Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar continued its strong downward trend ahead of key economic numbers from the United States. It has now dropped below the key point at 0.6625, its lowest point on September 11.
The pair has formed a bearish flag chart pattern, a popular continuation sign. This pattern is made up of a long vertical line followed by a consolidation. Also, the MACD indicator has retreated below the zero line, while the Stochastic Oscillator moved to the oversold level.
EURUSD Chart by TradingView
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely have a bearish breakout as sellers target the next key psychological point at 0.6400. This view will be confirmed if the pair falls below the support at 0.6443, its lowest swing last week.
On the flip side, a move above the key resistance level at 0.6550 will invalidate the bearish view and point to more upside.
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