India Blasts Into The Hypersonic Missile Club

He notes their capability to deliver precision strikes against strategic targets-such as command centers, fortified bunkers, or moving naval assets-at continental ranges amplifies their utility.

He also says hypersonic weapons can serve dual roles, carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads, offering flexibility in escalation scenarios and enhancing their strategic appeal in limited conflicts.

This assured ability to penetrate defenses ensures credible retaliation, potentially deterring adversaries and averting nuclear escalation.

Rajesh Gupta mentions in a June 2022 Center for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) issue brief that India's rationale for pursuing hypersonic weapons revolves around enhancing strategic deterrence and maintaining security in a nuclearized neighborhood.

Gupta highlights that these weapons, with their high speed, maneuverability, and precision, can act as significant tools in India's broader strategy of“dissuasive deterrence” against China and“punitive deterrence” against Pakistan.

He says that by developing hypersonic capabilities, India aims to counter emerging threats from adversaries like China's expanding hypersonic arsenal and enhance its capability to inflict substantial costs in the event of military escalation.

Dissuasive deterrence, also known as“deterrence by denial,” involves deterring an action by demonstrating a credible capability to prevent an adversary from achieving potential gains to motivate that action.

Punitive deterrence, or“deterrence by punishment,”
involves threatening severe penalties, like nuclear escalation, to raise the cost of an attack. It focuses on broader punitive measures rather than direct defense.

Gupta says HCMs and HGVs are particularly significant for targeting high-value enemy assets and strengthening conventional and nuclear capabilities. He mentions that acquiring these weapons is essential for safeguarding strategic interests and mitigating vulnerabilities posed by advanced enemy systems.

He notes that India's investment in hypersonic systems and defense mechanisms aligns with its goal of joining the elite club of countries having hypersonic weapons to assert strategic parity and effectively deter adversaries.

As for the impact of China's hypersonic weapons arsenal on India's program to develop such weapons, Granath Vanaik mentions in a 2021 Air Power journal article that such poses a significant challenge to India's strategic deterrence doctrine and its nascent hypersonic weapons efforts.

Vanaik mentions that China's deployment of the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, coupled with its DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile, underscores its emphasis on bypassing advanced missile defense systems like those of the US, which has implications for regional rivals like India.

He says these developments compress India's response timelines, threatening its nuclear command and control systems and raising the risk of escalation due to ambiguities about warhead types and target intentions. He points out that China's advancements could compel India to lower its nuclear threshold or adopt more aggressive postures, increasing the potential for inadvertent escalation.

Vanaik mentions the asymmetric capabilities between the two nations are exacerbated by India's limited progress in hypersonic technology and its incomplete nuclear triad, potentially triggering an expensive regional arms race.

From Pakistan's perspective, Adil Sultan and Ifta Khursheed mention in a 2021 article in the Islamabad Policy Research Institute journal that India's advancements in hypersonic weapons present significant strategic challenges to Pakistan.

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Sultan and Khursheed say that hypersonic systems, characterized by their speed, maneuverability, and ability to evade missile defenses, could enhance India's capacity for preemptive counterforce strikes. They point out these capabilities align with India's Cold Start Doctrine, potentially targeting Pakistan's tactical nuclear weapons and strategic missile systems.

Such developments, they say, might compel Pakistan to adapt its Full Spectrum Deterrence posture, possibly through heightened missile alert statuses, an expansion of mobile launch platforms, or the initiation of its hypersonic program.

As Vanaik, Sultan, and Khursheed caution, these responses risk exacerbating an arms race in South Asia, undermining crisis stability, and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation.

In a December 2021 National Security Journal article , Sultan mentions that India's acquisition of hypersonic weapons is expected to exacerbate regional instability. These weapons are particularly effective against mobile ground-based missile systems, such as Pakistan's short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), which are seen as critical to deterring India's limited warfighting strategy of proactive operations.

Sultan says that as India's hypersonic weapons are likely to carry conventional warheads, India may aim to use such a capability for a preemptive strike on Pakistan's SRBMs, potentially complicating Pakistan's ability to respond with nuclear weapons. He states this scenario could allow India to initiate a limited conventional military conflict.

To counter the threat of a preemptive strike, Sultan states Pakistan might be compelled to place its SRBMs on higher alert, increase their numbers, and enhance their mobility. According to Sultan, these actions, alongside other countermeasures, could further destabilize the strategic balance in the region.

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