Ukraine War Scenarios Don't All Assume Trump Will Favor Russia
Date
11/14/2024 7:06:57 PM
(MENAFN- Asia Times)
When he claimed victory in the early hours of November 6, Donald trump said he was a man of his word. A hallmark of his second term as US president would be “promises made and promises kept .” Whether or not this would include his promise to resolve the conflict in Ukraine “within 24 hours” of taking office in January, he didn't specify.
On the face of it, that timeline is unrealistic. But a speedy resolution is possible – and all countries with interests in the conflict are now trying to influence the president-elect to produce an outcome, whether it favors Russia or Ukraine.
There are four basic developments possible and underway in Ukraine.
1. Cold war logic – the 'Trump plan'
Once it had become clear that Trump had been re-elected, his campaign team outlined a plan that reduces direct US involvement – both in the conflict and in European security in general . The proposal calls for an 800-mile demilitarized buffer zone along the frontlines in Ukraine policed by UK and European militaries, with Ukraine to shelve for at least 20 years its plan to join NATO.
The US would provide weaponry to Ukraine to deter further Russian incursions, but would not send troops or finance any western military presence in Ukraine.
During the Cold War, eastern European states such as East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia and Hungary had formed a large buffer zone between the Soviet Union (Moscow in particular) and NATO countries.
US Vice President-elect JD Vance. Photo: Wikimedia CommonsIt's important to note, however, that key members of Trump's team hold views that are likely to influence the new administration's approach to the war heavily.
Pete Hegseth, Trump's pick as secretary of defense , is noted for his anti-NATO stance.
Marco Rubio , who is Trump's pick for secretary of state, is likely to want Ukraine to agree a deal with Russia at nearly any price.
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