Smart Dragon: Taiwan's New Unmanned Sub Breathes Fire At China

Aside from UUVs, Taiwan is also actively developing unmanned surface vessels (USVs). In April 2024, Asia Times reported that Taiwan's National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST) had initiated a US$25 million, two-year program to develop at least 200 USVs by 2026.

These vessels, weighing under four tons and remotely controllable from up to 70 kilometers, are designed for suicide attacks against PLA Navy ships. Taiwan's private sector, including Thunder Tiger Corporation , has contributed prototypes like the Seawolf 400 and Shark 400.

Taiwan employs UUVs and USVs as part of its porcupine strategy, which involves accumulating a sizable number of small, mobile, affordable and robust anti-air and anti-ship systems that are capable of withstanding initial Chinese attacks and successfully fending off an amphibious or airborne invasion.

A 2022 article in the Journal of Policy and Strategy mentions that Taiwan's porcupine strategy leverages UUVs to fortify its defenses against potential Chinese aggression. The strategy aims to create a formidable deterrent that raises China's cost of invasion.

Central to this approach is the use of UUVs alongside other asymmetric capabilities such as sea mines, coastal defense missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The article points out that these assets are difficult to detect and target, enhancing Taiwan's ability to disrupt Chinese landing operations and complicate an amphibious assault.

It states that the UUVs are particularly valuable for monitoring and defending vulnerable coastal areas and straits, where they can stealthily track enemy movements and support anti-ship operations.

The article mentions that UUV technology aids Taiwan's broader goal of transforming its defenses to focus on mobility, resilience and cost-effectiveness, moving away from traditional, large-scale assets like fighter jets, which are less practical against a full-scale invasion.

It says that by bolstering Taiwan's asymmetric capabilities, UUVs are critical in making the self-governing island“indigestible” to China, reinforcing a strategy intended to deny China any expectation of a swift, uncontested victory​.

However, Taiwan faces significant hurdles in scaling up its drone industry. In an April 2024 article for Domino Theory, Harun Talha Ayanoglu mentions that Taiwan faces a considerable challenge in closing the drone production gap with China, the world's largest drone manufacturer.

In response to that capability gap, Ayanoglu says that Taiwan has launched the“Drone National Team” program, committing NTD 50 billion (approximately US$1.5 billion) to acquire drones and subsidize up to 50% of research and development costs for private companies.

He says the strategic plan aims to deploy 3,200 UAVs by mid-2024 and acquire 700 military-grade and 7,000 commercial-grade drones by 2028.

However, Ayanoglu points out that the feasibility of these targets remains uncertain, as drones' effectiveness depends on integration within sophisticated operational frameworks, including electronic warfare.

He mentions that economic feasibility and the need for combat experience are critical factors. Taiwan's diplomatic isolation limits its ability to export high-tech weaponry and hinders establishing a drone economy of scale. Despite these challenges, Ayanoglu notes Taiwan collaborates with European, American and Israeli drone producers to accelerate its drone capabilities.

However, Taiwan's porcupine strategy may not be the right approach for its defense. Wallace Gregson and John Dotson critiqued the strategy in a May 2023 Global Taiwan Institute article , arguing it is insufficient for the self-governing island's current security needs.

Gregson and Dotson argue that this approach is too passive and does not align with the proactive and aggressive defense posture required to counter China's People's Liberation Army (PLA).

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They point out that the porcupine metaphor is criticized for its lack of agility and offensive capabilities, which are essential for modern warfare. Instead, they advocate for a“Honey Badger Strategy,” emphasizing active defense, agility and the ability to strike preemptively.

Gregson and Dotson call for Taiwan's forces to be widely distributed, operationally resilient and equipped with precision weapons to engage the enemy at a distance. They say that the honey badger, known for its ferocity and aggressive defense, is proposed as a more fitting symbol for Taiwan's defense strategy, reflecting the need for a more dynamic and assertive approach to deter and defeat China.

However, a proposed Honey Badger strategy for Taiwan may escalate Cross-Strait tensions, increasing the risk of unintended consequences.

It may also be resource-intensive to implement. In an August 2024 Council of Foreign Relations article , David Sacks says that Taiwan's recent decision to increase its defense budget by nearly 6% to almost US$20 billion has been met with criticism for inadequately addressing the growing threat from China.

Sacks notes that Taiwan's defense spending at 2.5% of GDP is below the 3% target and lags behind countries like Israel, widening the gap with China's rapidly growing defense budget.

He argues Taiwan needs more resources for asymmetric defense, including drones and uncrewed systems, and must increase defense spending to 5% of GDP for robust deterrence and greater US and allied support.

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