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The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market bouncing the way it did during the day on Friday. This is a market that's been extraordinarily negative for some time, as traders begin to worry about whether or not there is going to be enough demand out there to continue supporting the market. As things stand right now, I think it's a completely open question, but it is worth noting that this is a market that has been very noisy and influenced by external factors.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for the crude oil market is a bit of a mixed bag. Quite frankly, we are getting very close to a major support level for the last 2 years, and I think that is something worth paying attention to. However, if we do rally from here the $72.25 level should offer a significant amount of resistance, especially as we have just seen the market selloff from that level. Above there, we have the 50 Day EMA that comes into the picture and offers resistance also, so I think you've got a tuition where you could very well see a“fade the rally” type of market.
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If we do break down from here, pay close attention to the $66 level. Anything below there could send the market reeling, as the $65 level would suddenly come into focus. After that level, then you have the bottom falling out and that suggests that we could end up having a very negative turn of events when it comes to risk appetite and demand. With that being the case, I think you've got a scenario where market participants continue to look at this as a situation where the volatility remains somewhat elevated, but at the end of the day, I don't think there's a whole lot here to the downside left, just simply because we are at such extraordinarily low levels for the last couple of years. If we can break above the 50 Day EMA, then I think this market becomes bullish all of the sudden.
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