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Ahead of their latest visit to Manila, the US defense and diplomatic chiefs dropped by Tokyo for two-plus-two meeting with Japanese counterparts. Shortly before, Japan and the Philippines finalized a new defense pact, slugged as a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), to boost bilateral military interoperability, joint exercises and exchange of sophisticated weapons systems.

Earlier this year, Washington hosted the first-ever Japan-Philippine-US (JAPHUS) trilateral summit to deepen trilateral defense cooperation with an eye on China. US President Joseph Biden underscored his“iron-clad commitment” to its two Asian allies, especially amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits.

The fourth Philippine-US two-plus-two meeting was particularly important in light of multiple near-clashes between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea.

In one, a Philippine naval officer lost his finger following a tense standoff with Chinese maritime forces in mid-June. In others, multiple Philippine naval and coast guard vessels have been damaged after being rammed by much larger Chinese coast guard vessels.

In response, a growing number of Filipino strategists have openly called for the invocation of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty to counter China's increasingly aggressive tactics.

Heading into a heated election season, the outgoing Biden administration, which is already grappling with open conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, is seemingly in no mood to pick a fight with China. But it has sought to reassure its regional allies of its continued commitment and leadership in the face of a resurgent China.

Accordingly, Blinken and Austin decided to hold their latest two-plus-two meeting in Manila, instead of in Washington, in a clear show of support to the Southeast Asian nation.

This was the third visit by Blinken to Manila in the past two years, while Austin visited the Asian capital for a third time, including an extremely fruitful meeting with former president Rodrigo Duterte in mid-2021.

Blinken hailed the latest meeting as“genuinely historic” for spawning a new era of defense cooperation between the two allies.

“It's, I think, really evidence of a steady drumbeat of very high-level engagements between our countries that are covering the full range of issues and opportunities that bring us together – not only security but also economic – and we're truly grateful for this partnership,” the US diplomatic chief said during his visit to Manila.

For his part, Austin underscored how the new $500 million defense package will“boost security collaboration with our oldest treaty ally in this region” and characterized the expanded FMF as an“unprecedented provision of security assistance, which is an order of magnitude greater than what we've recently provided to the Philippines on an annual basis...[and] a critical enabler of the Philippine defense moderation already underway.”

A balanced approach

Philippine defense chief Gilbert Teodoro vowed that the new defense package will be spent in accordance with a mutually negotiated
“Security Assistance Sector Roadmap”, which includes multiple priorities, including“hardening capabilities” in the realm of cybersecurity;“secur[ing] the Philippines' credible deterrent posture” by enhancing the Armed Forces of the Philippines' naval and air force capabilities and expanding facilities and instituting upgrades at multiple EDCA bases in the northern and western regions of the Philippines.

“Every peso or dollar spent on hardening Philippine capabilities to defend itself and to deter unlawful aggression will be a plus against any threat actor, whether it be China or anyone,” Teodoro added, emphasizing that the new investments are also for non-combat operations such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in light of the Philippines' profound vulnerabilities to climate change.

The two sides also agreed to establish a“Roles, Missions, Capabilities Working Group” to enhance interoperability and policy coordination on defense issues.
Despite the lofty rhetoric, however, Manila is still hedging its bets. During a courtesy call with the visiting US defense and diplomatic chiefs, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr quipped about America's worrying domestic politics ahead of polarizing elections.

The Filipino president said that he was“surprised” by the visit of top American officials“considering how interesting your political situation has become back in the States.”

Key US allies like the Philippines are clearly concerned about political instability and major foreign policy resets after the November elections, especially if Donald Trump regains the White House.

Meanwhile, the new US defense package to the Philippines is both small compared to multi-billion-dollar aid given to US partners in the Middle East and Europe, and too miniscule to dent China's military preponderance in the South China Sea.