Austin: Gis Might Have To Fight Russians In Europe

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But there is little sign that Russia intends any expansion in Eastern Europe or the Baltic States and virtually no intelligence of any kind supporting the Austin invasion thesis. If there were any concrete intelligence you can safely bet the Biden administration would let Congress know (especially when it has its hands out for more money for the war).

There are three reasons for crediting the opposite hypothesis, namely that Russia has no intention of expanding outside of the Ukraine conflict area.

The first reason is behavioral. With NATO's war stocks at an all time low, Russia could have taken advantage of this vulnerability and moved its forces against NATO targets – for example NATO operations in Poland or in the Balkans – but have not done so.

The Russians have exercised unprecedented restraint and even tolerated aggressive intelligence flights and NATO naval exercises in the Black Sea, an extraordinarily sensitive Russian security worry. The Black Sea is not only the back door to Ukraine, it is also a route to challenge Russia itself.

Russia even exercised restraint when Ukraine used drones to hit an airfield inside Russia where nuclear bombers are based . Two of these bombers were either damaged or destroyed. Such an attack needed intelligence support from NATO, primarily the US, and the Russians no doubt understood that quite well. Yet the Russians tolerated the attack to a degree and took no steps to widen the conflict.

There is some evidence that the attack on the Soltsy-2 airbase was launched by the Ukrainians from Estonia, as Ukrainian drones did not have the range to reach the airbase.

Images posted online show a Tu-22M on fire at Soltsy-2 airbase.

Other examples of Russian restraint include the sinking of Russia's flagship Moskva with US help, multiple attempts to destroy the Kerch Strait bridge connecting Russia to Crimea and multiple attacks on Moscow, including an attempt to hit Putin's Kremlin office in what Russia says was an attempt to assassinate Putin.

The second reason to view Russia as reluctant to expand the conflict is that doing so would be immensely costly. Russia has already learned just how expensive the Ukraine war is, even though it is finally winning the wa after nearly two years of fighting. But a war in Europe would add US and European fighter aircraft and bombers to Russia's misery – even if NATO ground forces would have significant problems, according to a RAND study

The greatest cost for Russia is manpower and casualties from the war. Figuring out actual casualties is difficult, because the Ukrainians and Russians alike either don't tell the truth or say nothing.

Yet the fact that Russia needs to step up its military recruiting – has even filled gaps with prisoner – says that the war has taken many lives. It also means that the war's popularity in Russia may be threatened if the numbers of killed and wounded grow too high.

It is hard to believe Russia would crank up a bigger war, given the impact on manpower. Nor would the war keep the support of the Russian people, who know how to oppose a conflict when it starts to bite them at home. That's what forced Russia to leave Afghanistan , starting the withdrawal in May 1988 and completing it in February 1989. (That wasn't enough to save Gorbachev or prevent a coup attempt and it led to the disintegration of the USSR.

The third reason that speaks against Russia expanding the conflict is the unanticipated wild card of Western sanctions on Russia.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo prior to their talks in Beijing, China, Feb. 4, 2022. Photo: Wikipedia

In effect, responding to Putin's“Special Military Operation” in Ukraine, NATO and many other countries aligned with the United States or with the European Union imposed heavy sanctions on Russia. This drove Russia into the arms of China and forced Russia to rethink its future. Above all it meant a realignment of Russia's resources, trade and monetary system away from Europe and the west.