(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) VIENNA, July 13 (KUNA) -- World oil demand is expected to grow by 2.4 million barrel per day (mbpd) in 2023, following an upward revision of about 0.1 mb/d from last month's assessment, mainly due to higher demand seen in China in 2Q23.
In its monthly report, OPEC added, "based on the initial world oil demand and non-OPEC supply forecast for 2024, demand for OPEC crude is expected to reach 30.2 million barrel/daily, 800,000 higher than the 2023 level."
Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised up by 100,000 barrel from the previous month's assessment to stand at 29.4 million barrel/daily, the report noted.
This is around one million barrel/daily higher than in 2022.
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined by 63آ¢, or 0.8 percent, m-o-m to average USD 75.19/b in June.
The ICE Brent front-month contract fell by 71آ¢, or 0.9 percent, m-o-m to USD 74.98/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract declined by USD 1.35, or 1.9 percent, m-o-m to average USD 70.27/b.
The DME Oman front-month contract rose by 13 آ¢, or 0.2 percent, m-o-m to settle at USD 74.91/b.
The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened by 64آ¢ m-o-m to average USD 4.71/b in June.
The futures forward curves of ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and DME Oman weakened during the month, and hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, extending the previous month's selloffs.
World economic growth in 2023 remains broadly unchanged at 2.6 percent and the initial forecast for 2024 economic growth is expected at 2.5 percent.
US economic growth for 2023 is revised up slightly to stand at 1.4 percent, followed by 0.7 percent for 2024.
Euro-zone economic growth for 2023 is revised down slightly to stand at 0.7 percent, while growth in 2024 is forecast at 0.8 percent.
Japan's economic growth for 2023 is revised up slightly to 1.1 percent, while growth in 2024 is forecast at 1.0 percent.
China's 2023 economic growth remains at 5.2 percent, with economic growth forecast in 2024 at 4.8 percent.
India's economic growth remains at 5.6 percent in 2023 and is expected to expand by 5.9 percent in 2024.
Brazil's economic growth in 2023 is revised up to 1.3 percent and is expected to grow by 1.1 percent in 2024.
Russia's economic growth in 2023 is revised up to 0.4 percent and a further recovery is anticipated for 2024 with a growth forecast of 0.8 percent.
OECD Americas is revised up slightly to account for a better-than-expected performance in the US in 2Q23. Similarly, OECD Europe is revised up slightly in 1Q23.
In the non-OECD, demand was also revised upward to account for bullish oil demand seen in China in 2Q23 and a slight improvement in Latin America over the same period.
For 2024, world oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, reaching about 104.25 mb/d.
The OECD is anticipated to expand by 0.26 mb/d, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase.
The non-OECD is set to drive growth, increasing by almost 2.0 mb/d, with China, the Middle East and other Asia accounting for the bulk of this growth, with further support from India, Latin America, and Africa.
World Oil Supply Non-OPEC liquids supply is expected to expand by 1.4 mb/d in 2023, broadly unchanged from the previous month's assessment.
The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2023 are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected mainly in Russia.
There remain uncertainties related to US shale oil output potential and unplanned maintenance in 2023.
For 2024, non-OPEC liquids production is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d.
The main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan, while the largest declines are expected in Mexico and Azerbaijan.
OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 50 tb/d in 2023 to an average of 5.44 mb/d and by another 65 tb/d to an average of 5.51 mb/d in 2024. OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 91 tb/d m-o-m to an average 28.19 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations Refinery margins rose in June to show solid gains across regions.
In the US Gulf Coast (USGC), margins recovered from the previous months' losses to reach a three-month high. Gains were seen across the barrel, particularly for gasoline, as firm-driving activities supported product markets.
In Rotterdam, refining margins were mostly supported by a strong performance at the middle and bottom sections of the barrel, while temporary unplanned outages led to a contraction of product balances in Northwest Europe and this weighed on ARA key product inventories.
In Singapore, margin gains were more limited, as the strength in transport fuels was partly offset by negative performance in naphtha and high Sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) markets.
Global refinery intake in June continued to trend upwards and was 953 tb/d higher m-o-m at 81.9 mb/d, according to preliminary estimates.
In the coming months, refinery intakes are expected to continue to be supported by seasonal fuel consumption. (end)
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