(MENAFN- AzerNews) By Emin Sevdimaliyev
The recent political transformations that can be observed in the
region are very interesting. Zangazur is becoming a center where
the interests of a number of regional players collide. And not only
regional ones. For example, quite recently the European Union
allocated about 100 million euros for the development of this
region, and Iran launched the work of the Consulate General in the
region some time ago.
And in recent days it has become known that Russia is preparing
to open the doors of the Consulate General in Zangazur, which was
positively assessed by the Armenian side.
But what is the reason for such unprecedented activity? In the
end, for more than 30 years since the collapse of the USSR, this
place was in limbo and no one remembered this region either in
Iran, or in Russia, and even more so, in the EU. And now it is
under foof interest.
The reason, if you think about it, is quite simple. All
countries "bustled" against the background of expectations that
Zangazur will become one of the main transport bridges, which will
allow establishing efficient transport links between Europe, Asia,
North and South.
These transformations were launched by Azerbaijan, which has
been preparing to launch a large-scale geopolitical and economic
project for several years. The Zangazur corridor will change the
economy of several dozen countries, but Armenia continues to oppose
it .
The problem with Armenia's approach is that it does not take
into account the position of major players who seek not only to
retain the staof regional powers, but also to become global
hegemons. We have already described one of these countries -
China.
Armenia's position jeopardizes the strategic interests of China,
which will certainly not be appreciated in Beijing. We will not
repeat the main arguments that we have already offered to our
readers, however, we note that the increased interest in Zangazur
from the EU, Iran and Russia is fraught with great danger for
Armenia.
First of all, the rising interest of each country should be
carefully observed. And this basic postulate of the world of
politics is very bad news for Armenia, since the interests and
needs of the EU, Russia and Iran do not necessarily coincide. As
well as methods to achieve these goals.
If you look at the EU, then the grants pumped into Armenia will
metaphorically be as giant as Trojan horse. Armenia will not be
able to resist the will of Brussels, as the country will lose
significant financial support. Another important question is for
what purposes these grants will be used. It is impossible to
exclude the possibility that another revolution will be initiated
in Armenia. In this context, it should be noted that the necessary
developments to achieve these goals have long existed in the West.
Suffice it to recall the Bulldozer Revolution in the former
Yugoslavia, which ended with the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic
and, later, tensions spread to a number of other countries.
On the other hand, Iran's foreign policy, at the same time, is
difficult to rationalize, though Iran's power projection methods
remain standard and highly predictable. At the first need, Tehran
will put pressure on Yerevan, seeking concessions. From the
Armenian point of view, the situation is complicated by the fact
that Iran's methods are, in essence, based on the basic postulates
of Machiavellianism and hard power. Of course, we are aware of the
destructive influence of Iran on the countries of the Middle East,
where pro-Iranian proxies are cultivated. According to theState
Department, Iran has spent about $16 billion to support its proxies
in the Middle East from 2012 to 2020. If we add to this the lack of
ability to use soft power and Iran's antagonism to all surrounding
countries, then the issue of disagreements between Tehran and
Yerevan becomes a matter of time.
The last country on this list, but with a very large variety of
levers, is Russia. As for the possibilities of the Kremlin's
influence, the list is obvious. Armenia is catastrophically
dependent on Russia on a wide range of issues, including security
and the economy. In the context of political influence, it is
necessary to note the membership of Armenia and Russia in a large
number of international organizations, which further increases
Armenia's dependence on Moscow.
Armenia turns into a point of conflict of
interests
Taking into account the possibilities and different approaches
of the countries concerned, it is possible to draw a number of
conclusions and observations about the challenges that Yerevan will
have to deal with.
The first observation is related to the fact that Armenia will
have to show considerable dexterity in maneuvering. This is due to
the fact that the interests of Russia and Iran, on the one hand,
and the EU, on the other hand, are opposite. Brussels sees in
Armenia a country that helps Russia avoid sanctions, as we wrote
about earlier. The situation in which Armenia finds itself means
that the EU, Russia and Iran will have more reasons to be
dissatisfied with Armenia. In other words, Armenia will be at the
center of a collision between the three political forces.
Not everything is so simple in relations between Iran and
Russia. Again, the transactional nature of international politics
must be kept in mind, and even between Tehran and Moscow there will
be disagreements. The big question is how Armenia will evade
pressure in this situation. At the moment, it is difficult to
determine any mechanism that will allow Armenia to pursue an
independent policy in the event of such a situation.
The second observation follows from the first. Armenia's
sovereignty is facing a more serithreat than previously
thought. The reason lies in Armenia's inability to oppose anything
to the mutually exclusive interests of the three countries. In such
a situation, there is a high probability that Yerevan will have to
sacrifice its interests in order to appease large forces. The state
of Armenian diplomacy does not give grounds to assume that the
country will be able to find a way out of such difficult situations
by finding a mutually beneficial solution. In other words, Armenia
will become a pawn in the geopolitical game of big countries with a
very dubioutcome for it.
Point number three is the weakening of opportunities for
negotiations with other countries on any issues. The root of this
problem, again, lies in the clash of interests of major players,
and Yerevan's position on major issues will have to reflect the
interests of foreign states. Given their large number, as well as
their mutually exclusive interests, the pool of possible solutions
to different solutions for Armenia will be very limited. This will
make her a weak player in potential negotiations.
As a result, Yerevan will face a wide range of challenges, many
of which Armenia does not have an answer to. It is clear that a lot
of pressure will be exerted on Armenia very soon on the issue of
unblocking transport links and launching the Zangazur corridor. And
Armenia itself will be to blame for this, which has been resisting
the implementation of the obligations under which it has signed for
so long.
Comments
No comment