Super El Niño Could Push Temperatures in Türkiye to Record Levels

(MENAFN) A strengthening El Niño pattern carrying the potential to escalate into a rare "super El Niño" event may drive temperatures across Türkiye to unprecedented levels from late July onward, a prominent climate scientist has warned — raising the prospect of a historically brutal end to the summer season.

Levent Kurnaz, director of the Climate Change and Policy Research Center at Bogazici University, said conditions through the first half of summer are already on track to rank among the three hottest on record, before an even more severe thermal surge takes hold later in the year.

"Until around the end of July, we expect temperatures to remain within the top three warmest years. But after that, we will begin to see record-breaking heat," Kurnaz said. "By late July, this is expected to become the warmest year on record without question."

The warning is underpinned by data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, which shows global average surface air temperatures have persistently exceeded long-term baselines in recent months. December 2025 ranked as the fifth warmest December ever recorded, while January and February 2026 each placed among the five warmest for their respective months. March 2026 came in as the fourth warmest March on record globally.

On the ground in Türkiye, Kurnaz noted that the past winter delivered neither adequate rainfall nor meaningfully cold temperatures, with Istanbul receiving unusually limited snowfall — a pattern he said has grown increasingly common over the past 15 years. While March brought some rainfall relief to parts of the region, including drought-stricken areas of Iran, reservoir levels across Türkiye remain below historical norms. Temperatures have since resumed their upward trajectory in March and are now running above both recent and two-decade averages.

The critical variable, Kurnaz stressed, is the ultimate intensity of the unfolding El Niño event.

"The question is no longer whether El Niño will occur, but whether it will become a super El Niño," he said. "That would mean temperatures in Türkiye, especially in September and October, could rise well above normal."

While early summer conditions may remain relatively manageable, he said late summer and early fall could bring more intense and prolonged heat.

The findings add to a growing body of scientific consensus identifying climate change as one of the gravest systemic threats confronting humanity — with Türkiye's forecast serving as the latest regional indicator of a global pattern that shows little sign of reversing.

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