China Cranks South China Sea Buildup While Iran Consumes US

That shift in focus is reflected in both force deployments and surveillance activity across the Indo-Pacific. The US Naval Institute (USNI) fleet tracker shows that as of March 30, 2026, the US has redeployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group (CSG) from the South China Sea and is now in the Middle East, with the USS George Washington (CSG) to join the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG, underway from its homeport of Yokosuka, Japan.

Apart from those carrier redeployments, the 31st US Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) has already been deployed to the Middle East, with the formation built around the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship. In addition, the 11th MEU, centered on the USS Boxer, is also en route to the region from its homeport in San Diego, California.

The redeployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George Washington CSGs to the Middle East could leave the USS Theodore Roosevelt CSG as the only US carrier force in the region.

With only one US CSG in the Pacific, the US might be facing a serious carrier gap, weakening its ability to respond to multiple hotspots, including the Korean Peninsula, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea.

Additionally, moving two US MEUs from the Pacific to the Middle East could limit US operational flexibility in the First Island Chain. This region depends heavily on dispersed marine littoral operations, amphibious mobility, and forward-based aircraft, such as fighter jets, stationed on amphibious assault ships.

Furthermore, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported in March 2026 that US reconnaissance flights in the South China Sea dropped by 30%, citing the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI), a Chinese think tank.

According to the SCSPI, there were only 72 US reconnaissance flights over the South China Sea in February 2026, a sharp drop from 102 flights from December 2025 to January 2026.

While SCMP and SCSPI did not specify the cause, the drop coincides with the US focus on the Middle East and efforts to create favorable conditions for a planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

With the US facing a potential two-front problem in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific, China appears to have used the situation to scale up construction at Antelope Reef.

According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) report from March 2026, China's swift construction efforts at Antelope Reef may transform it into China's largest occupied feature in the Paracel Islands, and potentially in the entire South China Sea.

Using commercial satellite images from Vantor, AMTI estimated that the reclaimed land at Antelope Reef is roughly 6.11 square kilometers. The report also states that Woody Island in the Paracels, which hosts an air and naval base, and Sansha City cover about 3.44 square kilometers. Meanwhile, AMTI says Mischief Reef in the South China Sea spans 6.16 square kilometers, almost identical to Antelope Reef's current size.