Breaking: Khamenei Son Reportedly Named Iran's New Supreme Leader

The Guardian Council is responsible for ensuring compliance with the vision set out by the supreme leader. It consists of 12 men, half appointed by the supreme leader and the other half by the head of the judiciary (himself an appointee of the supreme leader).

The council vets parliamentary candidates and bills, as well as nominations for the Assembly of Experts, which holds elections every eight years.

The Assembly of Experts represents the conservative camp in the ruling regime, and it would look for the safest option for a new supreme leader.

It will likely look for a successor who closely resembles Khamenei – resourceful and flexible enough to make tactical adjustments when necessary, but able to push hard against internal and external threats when it counts.

This is not the time to take a chance with a“moderate” alternative. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will be advocating for a hardline successor, too.

There are no obvious candidates at this point. The most likely successor had been President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter accident in May 2024.

Those who could step into the role include Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the deceased supreme leader, who has started appearing in more public events. Another possibility is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

But the wild card could be Alireza Arafi, who is currently a member of the Guardian Council, deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and director of Iran's Islamic seminaries. He is a seasoned politician and has significant religious standing.

There is no explicit timeframe for the appointment of the next supreme leader. Given the immediate focus on the war effort, it may take some time. It could also be postponed to avoid putting a target on the successor's back.

In the meantime, under the constitution, a three-person interim council was formed to make decisions. This council includes Arafi; the moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian; and the hardline head of the judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i.

Meanwhile, the IRGC has effective free rein to lead the fight against the US and Israel.

Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, is officially in charge of this effort as the head of the national Defense Council. But in practice, he is seen as a weak president with no real autonomy. He simply parroted Khamenei during the June 2025 war with Israel, and has given no indication he will try to chart a new course now. This may be expected, given Iran is under attack.

As a result, the combative IRGC is setting the agenda. We can see evidence of this in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's indiscriminate attacks on neighboring states. For IRGC, this is not the time for a measured response, but for a show of military capabilities to punish the US-Israeli aggression. It appears to be acting according to a pre-prepared script.

Iran's attacks on Persian Gulf countries hosting US military bases, such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait, are burning bridges.