Kazakhstan Keeps Base Rate Unchanged
The interest rate corridor was set at +/- 1.0 percentage points.
The NBK notes that inflation for the year 2025 was 12.3%, in line with the forecast of the Bank. The largest contribution to inflation continues to come from the food component (13.5%), with significant price increases in meat and oil driven by rising production costs and high export supplies. Non-food inflation has slightly decreased (11.1%) amid the recent strengthening of the exchange rate, while the growth in prices for paid services has slowed (to 12.0%) due to administrative reductions in tariffs for regulated housing and communal services.
Monthly inflation in December 2025 accelerated somewhat, reaching 0.9%. Core inflation remains elevated at 0.8%. Inflation continues to be shaped by a situation where sustained domestic demand exceeds supply capabilities. Secondary effects of the tariff reform and liberalization of the fuel market continue to influence expectations and prices.
Anticipations regarding public inflation for the upcoming year have escalated to 14.7% and continue to exhibit volatility. Anticipations among industry professionals regarding inflation in 2026 have seen a modest uptick to 10.8%.
In October 2025, the NBK raised its benchmark interest rate from 16.5 percent to 18 percent.
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