Swiss Retail Resilient Despite Difficult Economic Climate

Nominal sales in the Swiss retail sector will have grown by 1% by 2025, according to the UBS Retail Outlook study, carried out in collaboration with the consultancy Fuhrer & Hotz and unveiled on Wednesday. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, growth was 1.8%. The fall in prices is estimated at around 0.8% on average.

Real wage growth, driven by pay rises and lower inflation, was a major support for the sector, as was the continuing solid situation on the labour market.

The non-food retail sector grew by 2.6% in real terms last year, and sales should continue to rise in 2026, albeit at a slower pace than last year. However, the situation remains tense in certain sectors that are particularly exposed to foreign competition, such as clothing and footwear.

In the food segment, growth was more moderate, at around 1% in real terms, in line with the long-term average.

In 2026, retail trade is expected to record weaker growth than in the previous year (+0.8%). With prices expected to rise by 0.5%, this should translate into nominal growth of 1.3%.

This content was published on Dec 15, 2025 Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) has slightly raised its 2026 economic growth forecast following the recent agreement to lower US import tariffs on Swiss products.