China-Indonesia Ties Show Progress, Feel Pressure In 2025

Defense cooperation marked one of the year's clearest advances. Indonesia moved ahead with diversification by proceeding with the Chinese J-10C fighter aircraft, a decision driven by cost, capability and bargaining leverage rather than ideology. The move came amid online pressure following Indonesia's purchase of French jets and fed broader debates about Prabowo's tilt toward China.

At the same time, Jakarta elevated security concerns in ASEAN–China talks, signaling that engagement would not come at the expense of sovereignty. Balancing between giants remained Indonesia's central strategic discipline.

Economic ties continued to deepen and test governance. Chinese investment supported infrastructure, manufacturing and housing schemes linked to Prabowo's domestic agenda, bringing speed and scale but also raising questions about transparency and standards.

Critics warned that Chinese involvement could complicate flagship social programs, including the president's free meal initiative, if procurement and oversight mechanisms were inadequate.

Few sectors illustrated the promise and peril of cooperation more vividly than nickel. Chinese capital helped turn Indonesia into a linchpin of global battery supply chains, advancing downstream industrialization and export capacity.

But the costs were increasingly visible: environmental damage in Raja Ampat, alleged abuses at Chinese-invested nickel plants, and persistent weaknesses in labor oversight. A drone-related incident involving Chinese workers and Indonesian military officials late in the year crystallized public concern that regulation had not kept pace with investment.

Energy cooperation followed a similar trajectory. Indonesia and China expanded collaboration in geothermal, solar, and green finance, often framed within BRICS and Global South climate leadership narratives.

Yet China's solar expansion in Indonesia continued to rely on coal, undermining emissions claims. Discussions of nuclear cooperation raised alarms about hidden long-term costs, while analysts argued that any battery alliance must be built on sustainability rather than speed. Progress in diversification exposed the urgency of reform.

Infrastructure, long a lightning rod, entered a more sober phase. The Whoosh high-speed rail remained controversial, but 2025 made clear that its woes were largely Indonesian -rooted in planning, coordination, and land issues-rather than a so-called Chinese debt trap. Preparations for expansion talks, following Jakarta's infrastructure minister's visit to Beijing, reflected a shift from blame toward institutional learning.

China's influence also extended beyond concrete and capital. Educational exchanges quietly expanded, rewiring long-term ties between universities, research institutes, and policy communities.

Beijing invested heavily in influencer diplomacy, new media platforms and narrative shaping, capitalizing on the decline of US diplomatic engagement and erosion of US soft power in Indonesia. These efforts gained traction, particularly as Washington's renewed tariffs fueled disinformation and online polarization across Indonesian social media.

Human rights remained a sensitive fault line. Indonesia deepened engagement with Xinjiang despite international concern and remained muted as Uighurs were unceremoniously deported from Thailand.

Official dialogues continued but were widely criticized as lacking substance. Meanwhile, Beijing's Muslim diplomacy during Ramadan demonstrated cultural fluency even as critics questioned whether symbolism was substituting for accountability.

President Prabowo's foreign policy reflected Indonesia's broader posture: assertive, transactional and image-conscious. His absence from the G7, optics of a Russia–China pivot and high-profile appearance at a military parade in Beijing drew criticism that global showmanship sometimes eclipsed domestic challenges, including protests linked to economic pressures.