Ryan Detrick Says Santa Rally Likely This Time After Not Showing Up For Past Two Years

• Detrick noted that while there is a non-zero possibility of Santa not showing up this year, U.S. equities could scale new highs and“put a cherry on top of a pretty solid year for investors.”
• He also dismissed concerns of a bear market amid a decline in volatility this month, stating that the CBOE Volatility Index tends to have muted moves in December.
• The market strategist cited Carson Investment Research's proprietary Leading Economic Index for the U.S., stating that the economy is improving under the surface.

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, reportedly said on Tuesday that a Santa rally has not missed the equity markets for three consecutive years, and that a rally is likely this year after not showing up in the past two instances.

“We think it's likely. These next seven days, starting tomorrow, are higher more than 77% of times. You look at all seven day combinations out there, none are more likely to be higher,” he said, during an interview with CNBC. He noted that gold and stocks will go higher for years to come.

Detrick added in the interview that while there is a non-zero possibility of Santa not showing up this year, he thinks U.S. equities could scale new highs and“put a cherry on top of a pretty solid year for investors.”

Here's how U.S. equities have performed in 2025 so far:

Low Volatility

Detrick also dismissed concerns of a bear market amid a decline in volatility this month. He said that it's not as much of a surprise, while noting that the CBOE Volatility Index tends to have muted moves in December.“I don't think it's too big of a shock,” he added in the interview.

The market strategist cited Carson Investment Research's proprietary Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S., stating that the economy is improving under the surface. 

In an update last month, he said that the LEI shows the U.S. economy is in a“reasonably strong territory.” He also noted that the index did not predict a recession in 2022 and 2023, either, even as other indicators suggested so.

Market Sniffing Better Growth

Detrick also stated in a recent note that his base case for 2026 is no recession. He pulled up historical data and noted that in 68% of years without a recession, equity returns exceeded 10%.

However, with midterm elections slated for 2026, Detrick voiced a note of caution, stating that these years are indeed the weakest during the four-year presidential cycle.

Detrick stated that midterm years during the second term of a President fare much better, so bulls have a reason to remain optimistic.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Tuesday's pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S & P 500 index, was down 0.14%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined 0.17%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) fell 0.2%. Retail sentiment around the S & P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the 'neutral' territory.

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