(MENAFN- The Arabian Post)

Authorities in Washington have set new measures that could render nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude oil stranded aboard tankers still at sea, disrupting key export flows and shaking global trade routes. The sanctions, targeting major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, take effect on 21 November and mark the most aggressive action yet under the current administration.

Data from analytics provider Kpler suggest around 50 tankers carrying the sanctioned barrels are dispersed across regions from the Baltic Sea to the South China Sea, with many lacking confirmed destinations. The stranded oil comprises mostly Urals and ESPO grades loaded under Rosneft or Lukoil.

Some buyers in Asia, notably refiners in Gujarat and the west coast of India, have accelerated bookings for Middle Eastern cargoes in anticipation of supply shortfall. Freight rates for the Middle East-to-India route have surged toward a five-year high, underlining the scramble for replacement volumes.

Analysts warn that although Russian exports have so far held up, the accumulation of cargoes at sea could presage a tightening of supply if unloading stalls. Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep NV, said that“if that [stranding] continues and finally backs up all the way, we could start seeing supply falling, which will be a concern to markets.”

The sanctions are the result of blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil last month, signalling the administration's intent to increase pressure on the Kremlin amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Treasury Department has indicated early success, citing weakening demand and steeper discounts on key Russian oil grades.

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A tanker named Furia, loaded with about 730 000 barrels of Rosneft crude from the Baltic port of Primorsk and en route to the Indian refinery hub of Sikka, diverted course in late October and is reported to be stationary in the Baltic Sea. The incident reflects the emerging logistical challenges facing Russian oil exports.

Floating storage of crude oil globally is rising, with data pointing to Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian barrels accounting for between 20 % and 40 % of that build-up since August. Observers suggest the fate of these stranded volumes will influence pricing and the balance of supply and demand across the coming months.

Russia's ability to reroute exports is constrained by the size of its“shadow fleet” of ageing tankers, many flagged in jurisdictions perceived as high-risk and operating with minimal oversight. These vessels have enabled Russia to circumvent earlier sanctions, but insurers and ports are increasingly scrutinising them.

Major importers such as China and India, who have taken substantial volumes of Russian crude despite earlier sanctions and price caps, now face a more opaque and risk-laden logistics chain. According to a banking report from JPMorgan Chase & Co., around 1.4 million barrels per day of Russia's seaborne export capacity - almost a third - may currently be stuck on tankers waiting to unload.

In response to these constraints, trading houses are offering steep discounts to move Russian barrels, and shipping rates have climbed sharply. Gulf-region producers and Middle Eastern suppliers are benefiting from heightened demand for rapid-replacement cargoes, prompting a shift in global trade patterns.

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