(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Brazil's financial markets reopen today after the Black Awareness Day holiday, bracing for a catch-up sell-off in the Ibovespa. Wall Street's AI-fueled rally unraveled into a $2.7 trillion rout, triggered by a resilient U.S. jobs report and Fed caution on rate cuts.

The report added 119,000 jobs against 50,000 expected, with unemployment at 4.4% and wages up 3.8% year-on-year. This has revived“higher for longer” fears that could strengthen the dollar and pressure emerging-market assets.

Amid the turbulence, President Trump made an abrupt u-turn on a 40% tariff covering Brazilian beef, coffee, orange juice, cocoa, tropical fruits, aircraft parts, and oil.

The tariff had been imposed in mid-2025 over political tensions but was reversed via decree on November 20, retroactive to November 13, following U.S. business lobbying and Lula-Trump talks.

This move lifts a major export barrier for agribusiness, potentially refunds duties, and eases inflation pass-through to U.S. consumers.

Meanwhile, a fire at the COP30 venue in Belém has turned Brazil's upcoming climate summit into an embarrassment, highlighting infrastructure vulnerabilities that could dent investor confidence in green transition pledges and bio-economy plays.



Nvidia's blockbuster $57 billion revenue quarter (up 60% YoY, guidance $65 billion) failed to stem the tide, with its 3.2% plunge dragging peers like Micron (-11%), AMD (-8%), and Applied Materials (-6%), amplifying global tech de-risking with spillovers to Brazilian cyclicals.

Yesterday's BCB Focus report held 2025 inflation steady near 4.55%, underscoring contained pressures and the high-carry allure of a 15% Selic amid fiscal scrutiny.
Key global prints steer dollar flows and commodity bids:

• 02:00 AM BRT UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) (cons. -0.1%, prev. 0.7%), Core Retail Sales (MoM) (cons. -0.2%, prev. 0.7%), and Public Sector Net Borrowing (cons. 15.20B, prev. 19.89B)-these matter because weak consumer spending and fiscal slippage signal BoE restraint, curbing GBP strength and indirectly supporting BRL carry if EM yields hold appeal.
  
• 03:15 AM BRT French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (cons. 49.0, prev. 48.8), Services PMI (cons. 48.4, prev. 48.0), and Composite PMI (cons. 48.1, prev. 47.7)-matter as further contraction tempers EZ rebound hopes, dragging EUR and oil sentiment to hit Petrobras.
  
• 09:45 AM BRT U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (cons. 52.0, prev. 52.5), Services PMI (cons. 54.6, prev. 54.8), and Composite PMI (cons. 54.5, prev. 54.6)-matter because softening activity post-jobs shock reinforces Fed pause, firming USD and pressuring Ibovespa below 140,000.
  

These matter because global PMIs and UK data set the dollar rhythm, where EZ/U.S. downside revives EM bid but UK fiscal woes prolong safe-haven flows.
Economic Agenda for November 21, 2025
Brazil

• 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) Cons: 0.1% Prev: –0.1%
  
• 09:15 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) Cons: 2.5% Prev: 1.8%
  
• 10:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) Cons: –0.5% Prev: 0.3%
  Implication: Soft IP + weak retail = easing delays, BRL below 5.35, equity pullback; beats fuel cut wagers, Ibovespa rebound.
  

Mexico

• 07:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (MoM) (Sep) Cons: –0.30% Prev: 0.60%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – Economic Activity (YoY) (Sep) Cons: 0.80% Prev: –0.90%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (QoQ) (Q3) Cons: –0.1% Prev: 0.6%
  
• 07:00 AM BRT – GDP (YoY) (Q3) Cons: –0.2% Prev: 0.0%
  Implication: Contraction drags near-shoring, peso slides to 18.50, BRL sympathy pressure.
  

United States

• 09:45 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Cons: 52.0 Prev: 52.5
  
• 09:45 AM BRT – S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) Cons: 54.5 Prev: 54.6
  
• 09:45 AM BRT – Services PMI (Nov) Cons: 54.6 Prev: 54.8
  Implication: Cooling PMIs ease Fed hike fears, dollar pause aids BRL; firm reads spike yields, EM sell-off.
  

Europe

• 03:15 AM BRT – French Manufacturing PMI (Nov) Cons: 49.0 Prev: 48.8
  
• 03:15 AM BRT – French S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov) Cons: 48.1 Prev: 47.7
  
• 03:15 AM BRT – French Services PMI (Nov) Cons: 48.4 Prev: 48.0
  Implication: Deeper contraction caps EUR, commodity drag hits Vale; mild softening supports risk-on.
  

Why These Events Matter: Brazil's IP and retail anchor the post-holiday open-resilient data counters U.S. shock, buoying inflows; Mexico's GDP tests regional resilience, with downside spilling to LatAm peers.

Global PMIs dictate dollar tempo; U.S./French misses fuel EM relief, while beats extend Selic pain at 15%.
Brazil's Markets Yesterday
São Paulo's B3 was closed for Black Awareness Day, but Ibovespa futures point to a gap-down open around 1.5–2% lower, catching up to Wall Street's brutal reversal where Nvidia's earnings euphoria flipped to a $2.7 trillion wipeout on jobs strength and Fed hawkishness, pressuring the EWZ ETF down 2% in after-hours. The real held steady near 5.33 per dollar amid cooling global dollar rally, buoyed by 15% Selic carry and tariff relief on ag exports. Cyclicals like Petrobras and Vale may extend losses on oil's >2% dip, while retail and solar plays eye grid woes curbing 20% of output.

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U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stock markets closed sharply lower on Thursday, November 20, 2025, capping a wild session that erased early AI-driven gains amid a delayed jobs bombshell and Fed minutes signaling rate caution.

The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.2%, its worst day since April, with tech shedding 2.7% and semis nearly 5%.

Nvidia led the carnage despite blowout results, turning from +2.5% to -3.2%. YTD: S&P +14.6%, Nasdaq +19.2%.

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Mexico's Market Yesterday
The Mexican peso held firm around 18.37–18.39 per USD, consolidating in a 18.30–18.45 range on Banxico's 7.25% yields despite global de-risking.

The S&P/BMV IPC slipped 0.7% to ~61,700, echoing Wall Street's tech rout with losers like Gentera (-4%), Regional (-3.5%), and Grupo México (-2.5%), while Banorte (+1.3%) and Arca Continental (+1.2%) gained defensively.

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Argentina's Market Yesterday
Argentina's peso steadied with official at 1,450 ARS/USD, blue at 1,425 (gap ~25 ARS), as Central Bank eased rates and repo'd $4 billion for January debt amid a collapsed $20 billion loan.

S&P Merval swung to flat near 2.85 million, with early risers Aluar (+2.7%) and Telecom (+1.1%) fading to -3.5% losses amid dollar strength and funding jitters, country risk above 600 bps.

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Colombia's Market Yesterday
The Colombian peso firmed to ~3,710 COP/USD from 3,760, but MSCI COLCAP eased to 2,030 after 50% YTD surge, marking two straight drops as fiscal deficit fears at 6.7% GDP erode inflows. Ecopetrol and ISA dipped, offset by Conconcreto and Cementos Argos gains on domestic rotation.

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Chile's Market Yesterday
The Chilean peso clung to post-election highs near 929 per USD on Kast's lead and copper support, with central bank at 4.75%.

S&P IPSA cooled 0.7% to 9,802 from records, with SQM-B (-3.5%) and Enel Chile (-2%) dragging amid global risk-off, while Parque Arauco (+2%) led retail resilience.

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Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real held its nerve at ~5.33 USD/BRL Thursday, defying a fleeting dollar index spike above 100 as U.S. jobs data cooled Fed cut bets, with Selic at 15% and lower 2025 inflation views (4.55%) drawing bond inflows despite November outflows and 2026 election hedges.

Technicals: Narrow range mid-5.30s near short-term MAs, RSI mid-40s; bias to 5.28–5.30 if dollar corrects on tariff tailwinds.

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Cryptocurrencies
Crypto extended losses; Bitcoin slammed into its 20-month moving average, sinking to mid-$80,000s (-~40% from $126k October peak) on ETF outflows, whale caution, and risk rotation to bonds/gold, with RSI rollover and MACD decline signaling trend reversal-next supports $78k/$72k. Ether below $3,000, Solana tumbling, no altcoin relief in broad de-risking.

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Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
The solar surge powers ahead with 62 GW installed, representing R$279.7 billion invested and 1.8 million jobs created. However, Northeast-to-Southeast grid strains are curtailing 20% of output, resulting in 1.2 TWh wasted and losses rising to 15–16% along with R$10.3 billion in theft.

These are challenges for utilities like Enel, especially amid embarrassment at COP30 over fire-related issues. Agribusiness exhales on Trump's tariff reversal unlocking $ billions in U.S. beef/coffee/juice flows.

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Key Developments
Nvidia revenue soared to $57B (+60% YoY), guidance $65B, but stock cratered 3.2% in $2.7T rout, dragging Micron (-11%), AMD (-8%), Applied Materials (-6%), Palo Alto (-7%), Apple (-0.9%), Microsoft (-1.8%), Alphabet (-1.0%), Meta (-0.2%), Amazon (-2.5%), Tesla (-2.2%) on AI spending doubts and jobs-fueled Fed pause.

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Brazil's solar boom hits 62 GW (43 GW distributed), drawing $52B investment and avoiding 91M tonnes CO2, but grid curtailments waste 14% renewables annually, exposing infrastructure gaps that undermine export competitiveness.

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Lula nominates AG Jorge Messias, 45, to Supreme Court-ensuring left-leaning majority through ~2055-shaping fiscal, election, and Lava Jato probes with pro-democracy bent that may ease regulatory hurdles for state-linked firms.

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