(MENAFN- The Conversation) The UN security council has voted to adopt a resolution endorsing US president Donald Trump's plan to end the war in Gaza. However, while the resolution references a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, the road to such an outcome is far from determined.

The resolution, which received 13 votes in favour and none against, with abstentions from Russia and China, paves the way for a Trump-chaired transitional authority to supervise Gaza's reconstruction and recovery. It also authorises the arrival of peacekeepers for an international stabilisation force to oversee border areas, provide security and demilitarise the Gaza Strip.

These proposals were first outlined in late September, when Trump unveiled a 20-point plan to end the conflict in Gaza. The White House reported at the time that the plan had“galvanised a chorus of international praise as the potential pivotal turning point” for ending the war between Israel and Hamas.

It was a result of this plan and diplomatic efforts led by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, that a ceasefire was put into effect on October 10. This ceasefire has seen a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza and the return of all the living – and most of the deceased – hostages to Israel.

However, the ceasefire remains fragile and Israel has reportedly violated it consistently with continued attacks. Torrential rain is also causing floods across the Gaza Strip, bringing more devastation to the war-torn area. It is thus vital that progress is made towards rebuilding the lives of Palestinians in Gaza.

But it remains uncertain whether Trump's plan will provide a complete solution. As is often the problem with internationally imposed plans, the wording is vague and therefore open to interpretation and manipulation. Specifically, clause 19 of the plan is ambiguous.

It states that only once the Palestinian Authority (PA), the body that exercises administrative responsibility over Palestinians in the West Bank, has reformed itself and the rebuilding of Gaza is under way,“the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood”. This leaves plenty of room for the path to be knocked off course.

Barriers to statehood

There are four significant barriers to establishing a Palestinian state. First is that there are no concrete details within Trump's plan about what a future Palestinian state will look like. None of the main sticking points around achieving a two-state solution have been ironed out.

These include questions around the status of Jerusalem, which Israelis and Palestinians both want as their capital city. There are also disagreements around where to draw the line between Israel and a future Palestine, as well as the“right of return” for the millions of Palestinian refugees currently living abroad.

A second barrier to Palestinian statehood is that it will not be quick or easy to meet the conditions required for a political process towards a two-state solution to begin. The PA is accused of facing a “crisis of legitimacy”. The president of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, and Fatah, its dominant political party, are deeply unpopular among Palestinians.

In a September 2024 poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, just 6% of Palestinians said they would vote for Abbas in an election. And the PA itself is widely criticised for systemic corruption, nepotism, clientelism and bureaucratic malfeasance. Reform and regaining the support of Palestinians will be difficult to achieve.

Rebuilding Gaza will also be no easy feat. The UN estimates that reconstruction alone will cost US$50 billion (£38 billion), with even the most optimistic projections suggesting it will take a decade to rebuild. At what point during these processes will it be deemed the appropriate time to return to the question of a Palestinian state?

Destroyed buildings in the east of Gaza City on November 16. Mohammed Saber / EPA

The third barrier is Hamas which, having rejected the UN's resolution, threatens to derail the peace plan entirely. Hamas wrote on Telegram after the resolution passed that the plan“imposes an international guardianship mechanism on the Gaza Strip, which our people and their factions reject”.

Some commentators have argued that the imposition of external control over Gaza, and the tying of Palestinian statehood to externally generated conditions, reflects“a continuation of colonialist logic rather than a genuine pathway to self-determination”. If the Palestinians are going to achieve self-determination, they need to do so on their own terms.

Hamas has now reiterated its refusal to disarm, arguing that its fight against Israel is legitimate resistance. Israel and its western allies have made the disarmament of Hamas a non-negotiable demand for ending the war.

The fourth, and probably most significant, barrier is that the Israeli government remains staunchly opposed to the formation of a Palestinian state. Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, did applaud Trump for his efforts to secure peace in a social media post following the UN vote.

However, he then told his cabinet that Israel's opposition to a Palestinian state remains“firm and unchanged”. Netanyahu later confirmed that Israel supported only the steps within the plan that insist upon“full demilitarisation, disarmament and the deradicalisation of Gaza”.

Far-right leaders in his governing coalition, alongside violent settlers, are at the same time changing facts on the ground in the West Bank. They are doing so by establishing Israeli government-sanctioned settlements on Palestinian land, which are considered illegal under international law. The construction of these settlements amounts to de facto annexation, thwarting the possibility of future Palestinian sovereignty.

We are a long way off from concrete discussions of Palestinian statehood. But despite the many problems in Trump's plan, it does provide some hope that at least the Palestinians in Gaza will be able to begin to rebuild their lives. Efforts must be made to ensure neither Hamas or Israel make any moves to derail this potential.

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