(MENAFN- UkrinForm) Karl-Heinz Kamp, a research fellow at the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), shared this view in a comment to Ukrinform.

The expert noted that Russia had issued very serious and explicit nuclear threats - stronger than anything seen even during the Cold War. However, at the same time, there is a strong awareness of the risks, because the logic of nuclear deterrence has always been "whoever fires first, loses."

"This means that Putin understands this very well," the expert said.

He added that today's nuclear escalation risks cannot be compared to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Still, he acknowledges that nuclear escalation cannot be completely ruled out.

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Kamp, who previously headed the Federal Academy for Security Policy, recalled that in the fall of 2022, Russia's military leadership indeed seriously considered the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, as the situation on the battlefield was going badly for the Russian army at the time.

"In other words, the more Putin [...] feels cornered and sees no way out, the less nuclear escalation can be ruled out. At the same time, I still consider it unlikely. What would he gain from it? Ukraine has said from the beginning that even in the event of a nuclear strike, it will not stop fighting for its freedom," Kamp said.

He considers the total destruction of Kyiv "absolutely inconceivable," and a nuclear strike somewhere in rural Ukraine would not force the country to capitulate.

"And even if it happened, everyone would turn against Russia: Germany would supply everything, the Americans would supply everything, and China and India would be extremely displeased. I believe this is also part of Putin's calculations," the expert said.

Kamp also recalled that when information emerged in the fall of 2022 that Russia was considering nuclear use, the United States sent Moscow a clear message. The message was that the U.S. would not respond with a nuclear strike, but assured that there would indeed be a response.

"There has to be a response, because if there isn't, deterrence doesn't work. The response would come, but it would not be escalatory - it would hurt Russia but remain below the nuclear threshold. For example, sending the Black Sea Fleet to the bottom or destroying the Kerch Bridge, or something along those lines," the security expert said.

As reported, Putin has repeatedly warned the West of potential nuclear threats since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Last month, he said that Moscow could use nuclear weapons if conventional missiles struck Russian territory and that Russia would consider any attack supported by a nuclear-armed state as a joint attack.

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