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By April 2025, the prototype on JS Asuka had achieved a muzzle velocity of 2,000 meters per second, firing without rail erosion, offering a cost-effective missile defense alternative. In September 2025, Japan conducted the world's first live ship-mounted railgun firing at sea, hitting a target vessel near Mach 7, aiming to counter hypersonic threats and cut reliance on costly interceptors.

China has also progressed despite setbacks. In May 2024, it tested an electromagnetic launcher that fired a smart bomb 15 kilometers into the stratosphere at over Mach 5 before malfunctioning.

By July 2025, China unveiled the“X-rail gun,” capable of firing 60-kilogram projectiles at Mach 7 to 400-kilometer ranges, marking a significant leap from its 2018 prototype and aiming to match missile-like performance at artillery costs.

While Japan and China's railgun efforts seem focused on ship-based weapons, efforts to renew US railgun research may focus on land-based applications for missile defense. That shift likely stems from the maxed-out condition of Arleigh Burke destroyers, aging and uneconomical-to-refurbish Ticonderoga cruisers, and the uncertain development of the DDG(X) program.

Railguns could boost terminal defense by increasing magazine depth, providing an additional layer against missile and drone threats targeted at US critical overseas or mainland facilities.

To illustrate these threats, China has developed containerized cruise missiles that could be concealed in merchant shipping. Innocuous merchant ships near Guam could turn out to be concealed cruise missile and drone launchers.

A multi-vector saturation attack consisting of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drone swarms could stretch Guam's layered defenses, which have yet to address the challenge of integrating diverse systems into a comprehensive shield.

In terms of mainland missile defense, the US has only 44 Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) interceptors to counter an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) attack – perhaps too few to defeat a saturation attack involving dozens of ICBMs with penetration aids and decoys.

However, US military facilities in the mainland may be facing a more surreptitious threat than incoming ICBMs. Breaking Defense reported in October 2024 that the US military has raised concerns over hundreds of drone incursions over domestic installations in recent years, raising concerns about surveillance vulnerabilities and operational security.

The report notes that many of these incursions go undetected and that sightings at sensitive bases like Langley-home to F-22s critical for maintaining US air superiority-have prompted scrutiny.

Those security lapses may hint at the vulnerability of those critical facilities against a surprise drone swarm attack, with Ukraine's Operation Spider Web providing a vivid illustration of what could happen – drones launched from pre-positioned inconspicuous trailers managed to inflict significant damage on Russia's strategic bomber force, destroying several irreplaceable Tu-95 and Tu-22 nuclear-capable bombers.

Similarly, China has developed containerized drone swarms that could be weaponized, smuggled through US borders and pre-positioned near key US military facilities. Analysts suggest surprise drone attacks from within the US mainland could prove difficult to stop.