(MENAFN- The Conversation) According to data released by global market research firm Ipsos in September, 80% of South Africans say their country is on the wrong track. It is not hard to see why.

Even if they are not among the white Afrikaners who have sought refugee status in the US, courtesy of President Donald Trump's controversial policy to protect them from the discrimination he alleges they are facing, there is a great deal for ordinary men and women in South Africa to complain about.

And with nearly 60% of the population born after apartheid ended in 1994, the government's attempts to frame the hardships faced by its people as the result of past repression have decreasing relevance.

The most obvious problem is perhaps the failure for standards of living to improve. The ruling African National Congress (ANC) party has overseen flatlining or declining GDP per capita for more than 15 years, according to a two-year study published in 2023 by Harvard University.

Living standards in South Africa have fallen or flatlined in recent years. Growth Through Inclusion in South Africa / The Growth Lab at Harvard University

Worse still, the study showed that unemployment has risen by 0.5% on average every year since the ANC came to power in 1994. This has left the majority of young men and women in South Africa without any prospect of earning a living. As the South African Department of Statistics reported in May 2025:

“Among the 4.8 million unemployed youth in the first quarter of 2025, 58.7% reported having no previous work experience. That means nearly six in ten unemployed young people are still waiting for their first opportunity to enter the job market.”

It continued:“Without experience, youth struggle to get hired – yet without being hired, they cannot gain experience. This cycle of exclusion continues to fuel long-term unemployment and stalls skills development at a critical stage of life.”

These are just two areas of decline. Johannesburg, the country's commercial capital, has endured repeated electricity and water failures, while its streets have been so poorly maintained that some are close to being dysfunctional.

The military, once respected – and even feared – across the continent, is in shambles. According to DefenceWeb, an African defence and security news publication, only 15% to 20% of the South African National Defence Force's aircraft are serviceable. It has one seaworthy frigate and just several inshore patrol vessels to guard nearly 3,000km of coastline.

South Africa's police force is also severely infiltrated by criminal syndicates – so much so that Firoz Cachalia, the minister of police, has warned that the country is in danger of becoming“the next Colombia or Ecuador”. Both of these countries are plagued by criminal syndicates, with Ecuadorian crime groups particularly notorious for their links with the police.

This is all taking place against a backdrop of rampant corruption, which was exposed by the South African government's own commission of inquiry in 2022. Hundreds of ANC politicians and officials were named or linked to corrupt activities after evidence was unearthed by the Zondo commission during its nearly four years of hearings.

Few of the accused are behind bars. And the author of the report, former Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, has expressed his disappointment at the slow progress.

Reasons for optimism

An air of gloom has settled over South Africa. Yet there is evidence that allows for a more optimistic analysis. First, the country remains genuinely democratic, holding elections that are regarded as free and fair nationally and internationally.

This remains true, even though the ANC lost its absolute majority in the 2024 election and has had to join forces with opposition parties to govern. This was very different from the response of many parties across Africa in recent years, which have rigged votes or refused to recognise elections they have lost.

More than 27 million citizens registered to vote for the 2024 election, and the results reflected a multiparty system with genuine voter choice. At the same time, over 11 million South Africans did not cast a ballot, even though they were registered voters. This indicates a feeling of apathy towards politics.

Second, the official opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has provided proof that there are alternatives to ANC governance that can work. Helen Zille was elected as mayor of Cape Town in 2006 and the party has held it ever since.

Her party has administered South Africa's Western Cape region since 2009. And their administrations have generally been effective and free from corruption, giving citizens an idea of what an alternative future might hold. She has now decided to stand for mayor of Johannesburg in 2026, a major challenge to the ANC.

Democratic Alliance leader Helen Zille has announced that she will be standing for mayor of Johannesburg in 2026. Kim Ludbrook / EPA

Third, most of the media and book publishing industries in South Africa are not controlled by the government. South Africa guarantees freedom of the press, and its media landscape is among the freest in Africa. It is ranked 27th globally on the 2025 World Press Freedom Index – the highest in Africa.

Fourth, the judiciary is independent and has a record of holding criminals to account. This includes some, such as former police commissioner Jackie Selebi, who were well connected. However, it is capable of being disrupted by powerful figures who find loopholes to delay justice. South Africa's former president, Jacob Zuma, is a case in point.

He has faced 16 charges of corruption related to a 30 billion rand (roughly £1.3 billion) deal to modernise the country's defence in the late 1990s. Zuma denies the charges and none have been heard in court. As his late lead counsel, Kemp J. Kemp, put it in 2007, he defended Zuma against corruption charges“like Stalingrad... burning house to burning house”.

Fifth, South Africa's agricultural sector is first rate, exporting across the world, while tourism remains a major attraction and a foreign exchange earner. Mining is also still important, even though it is a declining industry.

And sixth, several of its universities are among the best in Africa and produce skilled men and women who can serve their communities. The universities of Cape Town, Stellenbosch and Witwatersrand rank first, second and third on the continent respectively. These factors together could provide a basis for reform and renewal.

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