“This time is different” is arguably one of the most dangerous statements for investors, as it often generates euphoria, panic, and mistakes.

Still, it happens. Emirates NBD's 2025 Global Outlook, titled“Winds of Change”, was a thesis for a pivotal year where two catalysts, new technology and new policies, meet and accelerate two multi-decade trends: a rebalancing of the global economy, and the accumulation of debt in the“old world”. This collision is the beginning of deep, lasting changes, impacting everything, including investments.

It has arguably started. So far, 2025 is an excellent vintage for portfolios, with great dollars across all asset classes. Some of it is“business as usual”: global growth is resilient, inflation is contained, central banks cut rates, a classically supportive backdrop. But there is a twist. The US dollar is down nine per cent, gold is up 50 per cent, emerging markets outperform their developed peers, where most of the returns come from the artificial intelligence ecosystem. Markets say that indeed, this time is different.

Now let's look at the future, starting with the bad news: there are risks investors should not ignore. The first is sovereign debt sustainability in the developed world. Simple arithmetic tells you that the levels, trajectories and servicing costs have reached the limits of“business as usual”. Remedies such as raising taxes or cutting social expenses are both adverse to growth and unpopular.

Monetary support is always possible, but it has consequences on currencies or inflation. We do not expect a major sovereign accident in the immediate future but there will be turbulence. The second risk is about artificial intelligence. We are not sure about the timing of future returns from today's massive investments, which could test market's patience. Still, we are confident returns will come but are perplex about their big impact on the economy.

Will unemployment rise, increasing more pressure on public finances? What happens when a worker, now digital, doesn't consume anything else than energy and doesn't vote? A golden age for humanity, or a huge divide being created between winners and losers?

Now let's switch from anxiety to opportunities. First, the obvious sector: the AI race won't stop. Even if valuations are rich and if some“circular” deals are raising eyebrows, we are still in early stages, with opportunities everywhere in the value chain, from energy to chips and software to successful adopters.

Second, geopolitics. A multipolar world unlocks growth potential, especially for a large region around the Indian Ocean (of which the Gulf is part of, and the UAE its financial center). Population is young, educated, and GDP per capita can rise without being threatened by AI substitution anytime soon. The potential for regional trade remains massive, while diplomatic wisdom allows for smooth relations with the entire world.

Finally, debt levels range from manageable to inexistant, energy is abundant, access to capital is wide open, and transformative investments in infrastructure and technology are everywhere. In summary, future growth is about“Schumpeterian” creative destruction in the developed world, with a boost from“Ricardian” factors -investment and trade optimization- especially for a large region around the Indian ocean.

Let's conclude with practical portfolio considerations. The short-term is as unpredictable as ever, as one social media post or one technological breakthrough can instantly flip the market narrative, amplified by algorithms and speculation.

This is a time for strategic portfolio positioning rather than tactical trading, which should react to exaggeration rather than try to anticipate them. Success should be awarded patience and long-term critical thinking. Since these are not the best attributes of current AI systems, I believe (and hope, to be honest) that humans remain relevant for some time in investment management.

The writer is Group Chief Investment Officer at Emirates NBD

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