(MENAFN- The Rio Times) A quiet Monday of holidays in Canada and Japan masked a clearer signal by week's end: growth is still alive, but it's uneven and interest rates are still biting.

Think of three tracks-Europe gently cooling, the United States split between factories and housing, and Asia pulling in two directions.

Europe first. Inflation continued to ebb (euro area CPI 2.2% y/y; core 2.4%), the kind of progress central banks hoped for, but activity wobbled (industrial production −1.2% m/m).

Germany showed why this disinflation doesn't feel like a boom: wholesale prices rose only 0.2% m/m, and the ZEW survey had expectations at 39.3 while“current conditions” sank to −80.0.

The UK is rebalancing: unemployment ticked up to 4.8%, pay growth slowed to 4.7% y/y, yet August GDP nudged +0.1% m/m as manufacturing bounced 0.7%-a cooler labor market without a collapse in output.

The United States told a split story. Small-business confidence softened (NFIB 98.8) but New York factory sentiment popped to +10.7.

Housing remained the brake: homebuilder sentiment fell to 37 and mortgage rates hovered near 6.42%.

A $198.0B September budget surplus and smoothly clearing T-bill auctions show funding markets calm even as high rates weigh on interest-sensitive sectors.



Asia was the study in contrasts. China's prices fell again (CPI −0.3% y/y; PPI −2.3% y/y). Credit was plentiful-new loans CNY 1.29T, M2 up 8.4%-but that money is not yet translating into stronger demand.

Meanwhile, Singapore outperformed (Q3 GDP 2.9% y/y; 1.3% q/q) and South Korea kept exporting strength alive (exports +12.6% y/y; $9.53B surplus). Japan's pulse softened (industrial production −1.5% m/m; core machinery orders −0.9%).

In major emerging markets, Brazil looked steady rather than hot: services +0.1% m/m (+2.5% y/y), retail +0.2% m/m (+0.4% y/y), and the IBC-Br activity proxy +0.40% m/m.

India's wholesale inflation cooled to 0.13% y/y as food prices fell, but a wider trade deficit ($32.15B) flagged firm import demand.

The story behind the story: policy and prices are normalizing, but unevenly.

• Europe is approaching“2% territory” with weak manufacturing;
  
• the US expansion still depends on sectors less sensitive to rates;
  
• China's challenge is not credit supply but household and private-sector demand; and
  
• energy loosened at the margin (US crude inventories +3.524M barrels; refinery utilization −6.7 percentage points).
  

For readers abroad, that means milder inflation pressure globally, but growth that will feel stop-go-favorable for high-quality bonds, selective for equities, and still highly sensitive to any surprise from energy or China's demand recovery.

Bottom line: we're drifting toward normal, just not all at the same speed.

MENAFN18102025007421016031ID1110213932