(MENAFN- The Rio Times) The Brazilian real opened Thursday holding near 5.45 to the dollar, after USD/BRL slipped on Wednesday to close at R$ 5.4624.

The global dollar tone was softer overnight, with the Dollar Index hovering in the high-98s as investors leaned toward another U.S. rate cut this month.

What set up the move was a one-two punch of policy and trade. In the United States, fresh dovish signals-highlighted by a Federal Reserve policymaker warning that renewed U.S.–China frictions add downside risks-kept futures pricing a quarter-point cut for October 29.

The weaker greenback lifted a broad range of emerging-market currencies. At home, Brazil's central bank reinforced a steady, restrictive stance.

Monetary-policy director Nilton David said the current 15% Selic is meant to push inflation back to target and could be adjusted“higher or lower” if conditions change.



International director Paulo Picchetti added that policy is transmitting to market rates and the bank does not foresee a recession. The high carry remains a tailwind for the real when global risk appetite improves.
Brazil real holds steady amid mixed flows
Flows are a reminder of the mixed backdrop. Through October 10, Brazil recorded a $501 million net FX inflow, but the year-to-date balance is a $16.841 billion net outflow-evidence that the carry trade competes with lingering caution on Brazil risk.

Politics are also in the frame: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is due to speak with U.S. officials today on trade measures, while Brasília weighs budget alternatives after Congress struck down MP 1,303 on financial and betting taxation.

Technically, USD/BRL looks range-bound. On the daily chart the pair remains capped by a falling 200-day moving average in the mid-5.60s, with momentum indicators cooling after last week's pop.

On the four-hour chart, the early-October surge has faded into consolidation. First support sits around 5.41–5.42; resistance clusters at 5.52–5.55. A break above would reopen the 5.60–5.62 area; a dip below support would expose 5.38–5.31.

Bottom line: without fresh headlines, consolidation around 5.45 is the base case. The next decisive shove likely comes from U.S. policy messaging or concrete movement on trade.

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