(MENAFN) Britain is bracing for a significant decline in domestic gas output this winter, heightening its dependence on imports to heat homes and power electricity plants, media reported Thursday, citing data from the nation’s gas grid operator.

National Gas UK projects a 6% drop in gas supply from the UK’s offshore fields compared to last winter. This shortfall will be partly balanced by a 7% rise in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Norway will continue as the UK’s largest gas supplier, providing roughly 36% of winter demand, while domestic production is expected to cover just 33%. The global LNG market is set to supply the remaining 24% of Britain’s gas needs.

“Our margins for winter 2025/2026 are tighter than we have seen in the last four years,” the FT quoted the company’s annual winter outlook as stating. “This is largely due to the well-documented continued decline in supplies from the UK Continental Shelf.”

Government figures reveal a steep 10% drop in UK gas production between 2023 and 2024, reaching levels unseen since 1973. National Gas UK emphasized LNG as the “key source to meet rising winter demand.”

John Butterworth, head of National Gas UK, highlighted the strain on Britain’s gas infrastructure, noting that the system—originally designed for Scottish North Sea output—is now challenged by increased LNG imports arriving at terminals in Wales and southern England. He also warned that domestic production is forecasted to decline another 6% in 2025, deepening the nation’s reliance on imported gas.

The fragility of the UK’s gas supply was spotlighted in January when media reported natural gas reserves had fallen to a “concerning” low amid prolonged cold weather. Storage levels were at only half capacity, holding 26% less gas than the previous year. This crunch exposed a critical vulnerability: gas fuels about 40% of the UK’s electricity and heats 28 million households—a risk compounded by the UK’s ban on Russian LNG imports, which came into effect in January 2023.

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