Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens.

December futures in New York, the most active contract, already surpassed the $4,000/oz level in yesterday's trading session .

Gold has staged a historic rally, doubling in less than two years, spurred by central bank buying as it diversifies away from the US dollar, President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, investors are adding gold ETFs at a rapid pace. Total known ETF holdings for gold reported inflows of 30.2koz for a ninth consecutive session to 97.4moz as of yesterday. Year-to-date net inflows stand at 14moz, taking the total gold ETF holdings to the highest level since September 2022.

NYMEX WTI continues to swing upward this morning for a fourth straight session with prices trading fairly above $62/bbl, following a mixed inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Meanwhile, recent reports suggest that rising Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries have cut down the country's domestic crude processing while leading to a surge in overseas flows of unprocessed oil.

Numbers overnight from the API show that crude oil inventories increased by 2.8m barrels over the last week, well above the average market forecast for a build of 497k barrels. However, stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 1.2m barrels. Looking at refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 1.8m barrels. The decline in refined product stocks provided mixed signals on energy consumption in the country. The more widely followed EIA weekly inventory report will be released later today.

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook yesterday, raising its US crude oil production growth estimates for both this year and next. The EIA now expects US crude oil production to average around 13.53m b/d in 2025, compared to a previous estimate of around 13.44m b/d. For 2026, the EIA expects US oil supply to average around 13.51m b/d, compared to its previous forecast of 13.3m b/d. On the other hand, the EIA estimates US petroleum consumption to remain flat at around 20.5m b/d compared to its earlier expectations of consumption increasing to 20.6m b/d in 2026.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE report tomorrow although the ongoing US government shutdown might cause delays. The initial market expectations suggest that the agency could increase its US corn ending stocks by 126m bushels to 2,236m bushels, while soybean ending stocks are expected to rise by 17m bushels to 317m bushels. Wheat could see an uptick in ending stock estimates to 880m bushels (+36m bushels).

Turning to global supply, the agency could revise its Argentina corn output estimates to 53.4mt (+0.4mt), while keeping soybean output estimates unchanged at 48.5mt. Meanwhile, Brazil's corn and soybean production estimates are expected to increase to 132.3mt (+1.3mt) and 175.3mt (+0.3mt) respectively. Global ending stocks for corn are projected to increase from 281.4mt estimated in September to 283.3mt, whilst for soybeans the ending stock estimates are expected to rise to 124.6mt from 124mt.

Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry reported that the Ukrainian winter grain plantations fell by 5% year-on-year to 3.6m hectares as of 7 October. This was 50% of the projected area. The decrease was largely driven by winter wheat, where plantations decreased by 12% YoY to 2.3m hectares for the period mentioned above, as an intense drought has left the planting area too dry for sowing.

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