Shares of Upstart Holdings (UPST) rose in pre-market trading after a Morgan Stanley report provided a more balanced view and BTIG revised its prior estimate for 30+ day delinquencies in August.

UPST's stock was up more than 5% amid broader weakness in the U.S. stock market stemming from the government shutdown. Retail sentiment around the stock jumped higher within 'extremely bullish' territory amid 'extremely high' levels of chatter over the past day. 

In its original report, BTIG had projected August weighted-average 30+ day delinquency exceeding 11.2%. On Wednesday, the firm revised that figure down to 6.2%, up from 6.1% in July and 5.4% in June, according to TheFly. 

Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, highlighted positive trends for the AI-powered lending platform in its report, as cited by Investing. It noted Upstart's shift toward super-prime borrowers, who made up 26% of originations in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025. The firm emphasized that while Upstart still lends heavily to near and subprime borrowers, which makes comparisons to traditional prime lenders difficult, delinquencies remain down year-over-year (YoY), falling 242 basis points for 30+ day and 212 basis points for 60+ day delinquencies.

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