Daily Global Economy Overview: Wednesday, September 24, 2025

(MENAFN- The Rio Times) Three signals framed the day: a powerful upside surprise in U.S. new-home sales, a fresh deterioration in German business sentiment that undercut yesterday's better euro-area PMIs, and Japan's flash PMIs showing services resilience alongside a deeper manufacturing slump.

Oil held a bid after another U.S. crude draw, while risk appetite softened as investors digested Fed chair remarks about stretched asset valuations.
United States
Housing re-accelerated: August new single-family home sales jumped 20.5% m/m to an 800k SAAR, with the median price up to \$413,500 and months' supply sliding to 7.4 from 9.0.

The strength complicates the“cooling demand” narrative even as broader PMIs eased this month; it also reinforces that lower mortgage rates feed through faster to new-builds than to existing-home turnover. Equity indices slipped as investors weighed the housing surprise against the Fed 's caution on valuations.
Euro area
Germany's Ifo business climate fell to 87.7 in September (from 88.9), signaling sentiment is backsliding even as the euro-area composite PMI in the flash read crept higher to 51.2, led by services.

Net-net, the region still looks like a low-gear expansion with clear cross-country divergence: Germany's growth pulse remains fragile despite services momentum elsewhere. European stocks tracked lower on the day, led by financials.


United Kingdom
No major data landed, but gilts and equities moved with Europe as investors stayed focused on growth softness and incoming central-bank guidance after this week's PMI downticks. Long-end sensitivity remains a watch-point after recent auction dynamics.
Asia-Pacific
Japan's flash PMIs underscored two-speed momentum: manufacturing fell further into contraction at 48.4 while services held at 53.0, leaving the composite at 51.1-still expanding, but the slowest since May.

The mix supports a gradual domestic recovery biased to services, with external demand and factory output still the weak links.
Commodities
Crude stayed firm after official data showed a 0.61 million-barrel draw in U.S. inventories last week. Weekly balances also pointed to solid refinery runs and product output. Brent and WTI extended modest gains into the session before easing later amid broader risk pullback.
What it adds up to

• Growth: U.S. housing strength offsets softer survey data; euro-area activity remains positive but uneven; Japan's services keep the region out of contraction despite factory weakness.
  
• Inflation/pipeline: Housing firmness and steady oil complicate a clean disinflation path, but little in today's mix suggests a near-term re-acceleration of core inflation.
  
• Policy and markets: With the Fed cautious on valuations and Europe's macro signals mixed, financial conditions-especially long rates and credit spreads-remain the swing factor for Q4 growth.
  

Near-term watch-list
1. U.S. core PCE and durable goods to confirm goods-sector stabilization without reigniting inflation.

2. Germany's hard data (orders/production) to test whether Ifo's downshift foreshadows a Q4 growth wobble.

3. Japan's final PMIs and BoJ commentary for how long services can offset manufacturing drag.

4. Weekly U.S. petroleum balances and OPEC+ signals as inputs to energy-price pass-through into Q4 CPI.

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