H-1B Visa Fee Shock: What It Means For India, China, And The US? Who Wins, Who Loses? EXPLAINED

(MENAFN- Live Mint) US President Donald Trump last Friday, Septermber 19, shook the tech industry by declaring a whooping fee hike for H1-B visas raising the cost up to $100,000-an almost 50-fold jump. The announcement triggered immediate chaos with Silicon Valley companies warning employees against leaving the country, international workers rushing to book flights, and immigration lawyers worked overtime to decode the order. On September 20, White House, however, clarified that the hike applied only to new applications and would be a one-time charge.

Nevertheless, the future of the H-1B programme- highly criticised for undercutting American workers but lauded for bringing in top global talent-remains uncertain. We look at how the new rules will impact Indian and Chinese workers and American industries.

How will the changes in the immigration rules impact the Indian & Chinese tech professionals?

India was by far the largest beneficiary of H-1B visas last year, accounting for 71% of approved beneficiaries, while China was a distant second at 11.7%, according to US government data.

India's $283 billion IT sector will be hard hit and tech veterans, analysts, and economists say the move will disrupt the long-standing practice of rotating skilled talent into US projects.

Also Read | Wipro, Infosys to TCS: Can IT stocks weather the H1-B visa storm? Explained

The sector earns around 57% of its revenue from the United States and has benefited for years from work visa programs and outsourcing. But now, the changes will force IT firms with clients such as Apple , JPMorgan Chase , Walmart , Microsoft , Meta and Alphabet 's Google to pause onshore rotations, accelerate offshore delivery, and ramp up hiring of US citizens, as per a Reuters.

However, experts predicts while India or China may feel the immediate impact, the ripple effects could be even more far-reaching in the United States. As per BBC, Indian outsourcing giants such as TCS and Infosys have long prepared for this by building local workforces and shifting delivery offshore.

"With employers reluctant to commit to the heavy cost of sponsorship, we could see greater reliance on remote contracting, offshore delivery and gig workers," Aditya Narayan Mishra of CIEL HR, a leading staffing firm told BBC.

How will it impact US industries?

Experts suggest the fee hike will force US companies to radically change their hiring policies and offshore a significant amount of their work, which will eventually cripple US innovation and competitiveness

Gil Guerra, an immigration policy analyst said,“The demand for new workers in fields like tech and medicine [in US] is projected to increase (albeit in uneven ways), and given how specialised and critical these fields are, a shortage that lasts even a few years could have a serious impact on the US economy and national well-being.”

Also now more people from places like India and China will look at other countries for international study, which will again impact the American university system as well

Also Read | 'Trump not entirely wrong': Techie on how Indians exploit H1-B visa holders Who will benefit most?

Several countries are seeking to strengthen their tech and STEM talent pools and could seize the opportunity to attract foreign specialists who are now priced out of US jobs due to the H-1B visa fee hike.

The country that might be the biggest benefactor due to the policy change is Canada, due to stratigic location. On the other hand, the UK“global talent task force” is working on ideas to lure top global scientists to the country, including academics and digital experts, and Germany has already invited H-1B visa holders to look for job there.

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