Ethiopia's Two Bids At Democracy Have Failed: What It Will Take To Succeed

(MENAFN- The Conversation) Ethiopia has attempted to transition to democracy twice. First in 1991 , when a new government overthrew a dictatorial military regime. Second in 2018 , when Abiy Ahmed took over as prime minister after protests against a repressive government.

In both attempts, there was optimism and excitement . But both failed.

Can Ethiopia still get it right? In a recent article , I tried to answer this question. I examined four preconditions that scholars of democratic transition identify. These are:

• economic growth over a considerable period

• political elites committed to tolerance, compromise and respect for democratic rules and practices

• independent political institutions

• international organisations, such as the African Union and the UN, being willing to force the country's political elites to uphold democratic values.

In my view, based on my research , Ethiopia does not meet any of the preconditions.

Instead, democratic governance is made almost impossible by its poverty, culture of solving political differences with conflict and violence, absence of strong political institutions, and polarisation.

A democratic government in Ethiopia would help ensure people live in a country that respects human rights and dignity. It would help unlock accountability, stability and economic growth.

Failed attempts

In 1991, the country had endured a 17-year civil war that began in 1974 . The winners of the war, the Tigray People's Liberation Front, established control over the country by forming a coalition political party, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front .

The new government made radical reforms. It allowed political parties, radio and media communications to be free. It encouraged private publications and permitted public demonstrations.

But it didn't take long for the new government to become authoritarian . It persecuted political competitors. Elections were held regularly, but they were not free and fair. Human rights and political freedoms were violated. Freedom of political communication was restricted.

As a result, protests started in 2015 . They led to the appointment of Abiy as prime minister in 2018 .

He began a second attempt at moving Ethiopia towards democracy. As The Guardian newspaper in the UK described it:

Again, this didn't last. Instead, political order has worsened . The country went through a two-year civil war from 2020 to 2022 between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Another guerrilla war started between the federal government and an Amhara youth group named the Fano shortly afterwards.

What democratic transition takes

No country has become democratic without at least some of the four preconditions in place. And they are not equally important. For instance, Ghana may not have a strong economy, but it has political elites who play by the rules of democratic governance.

Economic growth: if a society is economically advanced, generally, the people want democracy . This is because an undemocratic and unstable government threatens their economic security. As a result, citizens won't take part in activities that go against democratic consolidation.

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world. While there is no magic number for this, one study found that a country with US$10,000 per capita income generally has a higher chance of adopting competitive elections. Ethiopia's per capita income is US$1,011 .

Economic growth is the foundation of strong political and civic institutions. These are important for transiting to and consolidating democracy.

But economic growth needs time. Ethiopia's constant political instability has hurt its potential for economic development. In the two decades before 2018, its economy grew strongly, reducing the national poverty rate from 39% to 24% . Political instability and other factors since then had increased poverty rates to 32% by 2021.

Political elites: if political elites are committed to deliberating, compromising and cooperating, a country can successfully transit to democracy. One study found that when political elites are divided, the country will be authoritarian. The current civil war in Sudan offers an example of what can happen when political elites battle for power.

In Ethiopia, political disagreements often lead to violence or a government effort to silence and destroy the opposition. In 1991, when the Ethiopian People's Democratic Front and other political groups couldn't find common ground, the ruling elite eliminated dissenters . This allowed it to rule the country alone for 28 years. Similarly, when political elites couldn't deliberate, compromise and cooperate in the second attempt, war broke out .

Political institutions: strong political institutions – such as an independent judiciary, police and electoral agency – support democratic transition. They also help sustain it. Political institutions prevent authoritarian leaders from persecuting political competition, and help solve any conflicts between competing elites.

External pressure: the best example of this was seen in 2022. The civil war between Tigray and the Ethiopian government ended when an African Union-led effort in South Africa forced the two sides to agree. It's difficult, however, to transition to democracy by relying on external pressure, which would need to be constant and consistent. No country in Africa has been able to become and stay democratic based on external pressure.

What next

Democratic transition can only succeed in Ethiopia when at least one of three things occurs.

First, the country's economy needs to grow for a substantial amount of time. Second, its diverse ethnic and religious identities must be integrated through policies that encourage the de-escalation of ethnic conflict. Third, society and, more specifically, the political elite need to commit to tolerance, compromise and respect for democratic principles.

All that will take a long time to achieve. Meanwhile, the country has two unfavourable choices: support a non-democratic government to consolidate political order and then gradually help it achieve democratic goals. Or attempt another transition, which may lead to anarchy and widespread inter-community violence. An untimely democratic transition would destroy political order.

With this in mind, Ethiopia's political elites need to embrace discussion, debate and compromise. External forces can be a support by getting the political elite to move in this direction.

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