The Commodities Feed: US Natural Gas Prices Under Pressure

(MENAFN- ING) Energy – US natural gas storage rises

Oil prices drifted lower for a third straight session in the early trading session today, following the latest comments from President Trump who called for lower oil prices to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine. Trump said the war would end“if the price of oil comes down,” and repeated calls for countries to stop buying fuel from the OPEC+ member. On the other hand, upside risks for oil continue following the recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine.

Insights Global data shows that refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region decreased by 239kt week-on-week to 5.92mt for the week ending 18 September 2025. The fall was largely driven by naphtha and fuel oil inventories declining by 120kt and 52kt to 547kt and 986kt, respectively. Similarly, gasoline stocks also declined marginally by 18kt week-on-week to 1.16mt, while gasoil stocks fell by 11kt WoW to 2.2mt over the reporting week.

In Singapore, onshore refined product stocks fell by a little over 1m barrels for a second straight session to 49.5m barrels over the reporting week. Residual fuel inventories and middle distillate stocks fell by 1.1m barrels and 144k barrels to 25.4m barrels and 9.7m barrels, respectively. In contrast, light distillate stocks grew marginally by 259k barrels to 14.4mt for the week ending 17 September 2025.

Separately, EIA weekly gas storage data shows that US gas stocks rose by 90Bcf last week, higher than the average market expectations of a build of around 80bcf. This was also well above the five-year average addition of 74Bcf for this time of the year. The bigger-than-average increase was largely due to the forecasts for cooler forecasts for late September. Total gas stockpiles totalled 3.43Tcf as of 12 September, which is 6.3% above the five-year average. The front-month Henry Hub contract traded under pressure and hovered around US$2.9/MMBtu in the early trading session today.

European natural gas prices ended higher for a third consecutive session yesterday. TTF futures rose by 1.7% to settle just below EUR33/MWh. Prices remain supported amid rising concerns over Russia's liquified natural gas phase-out plans. Recent reports suggest that the European Commission is considering options to end imports of Russian liquefied natural gas earlier than the end of 2027, which was the initial plan. Russia supplies more than 10% of the European Union's gas imports, roughly half of which comes via LNG. Meanwhile, EU storage is now 81% full, down from 93.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 87.6%. The expectations for cooler weather in northwest Europe over the coming week might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season.

Metals – LME aluminium inventories rise

LME data shows that total exchange inventories for aluminium rose by 30,125 tonnes (the biggest daily addition since 22 May 2024) to 513,900 tonnes as of yesterday, the highest since 6 March 2025. The majority of the inflows were reported into Malaysia's Port Klang warehouses. Meanwhile, on-warrant inventories of aluminium rose by 29,650 tonnes to 404,675 tonnes, while cancelled warrants increased slightly by 475 tonnes to 109,225 tonnes for the above-mentioned period.

Recent reports suggest that Ivanhoe mines expect medium-term production at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine to exceed 550kt, down from its earlier target of over 600kt, after flooding caused by seismic activity in May, likely triggered by mining activity. This has forced the company to draw up a new long-term development plan for the mine. Meanwhile, the company aims to issue production guidance for 2026 and 2027 once recovery efforts progress further. As one of the world's largest copper mines, Kamoa-Kakula has been a key contributor to global supply, as other major mines struggle to maintain output.

Agriculture – IGC lowers corn and soybean output estimates

In its recent monthly update, the International Grains Council (IGC) increased its 2025/26 global wheat output forecasts from 811mt to 819mt, while consumption projections increased to 819mt from previous estimates of 816mt. An increase in production resulted in rising global wheat ending stock projections to 270mt from 264mt projected a month earlier. For soybeans, the IGC lowered the 2025/26 production estimates to 429mt compared to earlier estimates of 430mt. Soybean ending stock estimates fell to 83mt from 85mt, whilst the consumption projections were increased from 430mt to 431mt. Looking at corn, the council left the global corn ending stock estimates unchanged at 294mt. Corn production projections were trimmed to 1,297mt from 1,299mt, whereas consumption estimates increased slightly to 1,286mt from 1,285mt seen in August.

Brazil's agriculture agency, CONAB, in its first estimates for the 2025/26 season expects soybean production to rise 3.6% year-on-year to a record 177.7mt. Despite pressure on domestic prices and profitability challenges, the crop continues to offer high liquidity and attractive returns, driving a 3.7% YoY increase in harvest area. In contrast, CONAB expects corn production to decline slightly by 1% YoY to 138.3mt in 2025/26, primarily due to a lower yield projection. Meanwhile, the corn harvest is expected to rise by 3.5% YoY, supported by strong domestic demand and rising orders from Asian buyers.

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