Explained: What Drove Donald Trump's Change Of Tone On India After Prolonged Trade Rifts And Geopolitical Frictions

Donald Trump's sudden change of tone on India has stirred questions about the state of bilateral ties. Just days after attacking New Delhi on Truth Social, the U.S. president offered praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a“great Prime Minister” and describing tensions as a“momentary hiccup.”

The remarks came after Trump had accused Washington of“losing” India and Russia to China, pointing to an image of Modi, Xi Jinping, and Vladimir Putin together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin. The reversal was swiftly welcomed in New Delhi, with Narendra Modi reaffirming the“special relationship” and stressing that he“fully reciprocated” Trump's assessment.

Tensions in India–U.S. ties before the shift

Trump's positive reach out marks a break from months of friction. India–U.S. ties had reached one of their lowest points after Washington imposed additional tariffs on New Delhi for purchasing discounted Russian oil. The dispute added to Donald Trump's irritation, already visible in his repeated claims, rejected by India, that he had mediated the India–Pakistan ceasefire.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal recently admitted that while tariffs were central to the breakdown,“a little bit of geopolitical issues” also disrupted trade talks, an indirect reference to Washington's renewed closeness with Pakistan. He nevertheless maintained that India could finalize a trade deal with the U.S. by November.

Yet, talks appear stalled. The U.S. negotiators' August visit to New Delhi was indefinitely postponed, no new date has been fixed for the sixth round, and reports suggest Donald Trump rejected a proposed deal prepared by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. The November deadline therefore appears unlikely.

Donald Trump's shift may reflect New Delhi's broader outreach beyond the executive branch. The Indian embassy in Washington, D.C. hired Mercury Public Affairs, a firm with strong links to Trump's circle. Among them is his Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, formerly registered as a lobbyist with Mercury.

At the same time, Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra intensified direct engagement with U.S. lawmakers. Within a fortnight, he met 19 senators and representatives, including House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Rep. Gregory Meeks, Congressional Energy Export Caucus chair Rep. Carol Miller, Subcommittee on Taxation chair Rep. Mike Kelly, and House Republican Steering Committee vice chair Rep. Blake Moore. These visits went beyond regular diplomacy, serving as targeted interventions to highlight bipartisan support for India in Congress.

Additionally, Trump's sudden shift may also be linked to India's hiring of lobbyist Jason Miller, a longtime Trump insider who played senior roles in his 2016 and 2020 campaigns. The timing of Trump's change in tone, following Miller's involvement, has not gone unnoticed.

A relationship shaped by multiple actors

Although Donald Trump's rhetoric often dominates headlines, the India–U.S. relationship is not determined solely by presidential statements. The India lobby has consistently played an influential role through organizations, caucuses, and targeted outreach. The Congressional Caucus on India and Indian Americans, founded in 1993, remains the largest country-specific caucus in the U.S. House of Representatives, reflecting enduring bipartisan interest.

The broader trajectory of India–U.S. ties has always been defined by turbulence. Successive U.S. administrations, including Trump's first term, expanded cooperation despite occasional confrontations. Reducing the relationship to Donald Trump's fluctuating statements risks overlooking deeper institutional dynamics that continue to drive the relationship.

Beyond immediate trade disputes, strategic concerns underpin the partnership. Both Washington and New Delhi share apprehensions about China's assertive posture. Despite efforts at a Sino–Indian reset, the unresolved border dispute and regional rivalry remain strong incentives for India to sustain cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Global South.

Still, the near-term outlook is uncertain. Modi will not attend the upcoming U.N. General Assembly summit in New York, and Donald Trump is not expected to travel to India for the Quad summit. Without a leader-to-leader meeting, opportunities for a reset may be limited.

Nevertheless, India's diversified diplomatic strategy may cushion the turbulence. By engaging Congress, hiring lobbyists, and strengthening bipartisan outreach, New Delhi has positioned itself to withstand the volatility of Trump's personalized diplomacy. The recent appointment of Sergio Gor as ambassador to India, with his known access to Trump, could further stabilize channels of communication.

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