JSW Steel Outlook: SEBI Analysts See Rally Towards ₹1,150 Amid Strong Demand

JSW Steel shares slipped on Tuesday, though analysts said the broader outlook for the stock and the metals sector remains positive, backed by resilient domestic demand and supportive global trends.

Technical View

SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal said JSW Steel has broken out of its recent sideways patch, with the stock trading comfortably above its 20, 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages. 

He noted the signals remain strong - the Parabolic Stop and Reverse (SAR) is giving a buy, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66 shows solid momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is trending higher. 

Pal added that as long as the stock holds above the ₹1,070–₹1,080 support zone, the uptrend should stay intact with scope to move toward ₹1,135–₹1,150. Pullbacks to support could be used as entry points, with a stop-loss below ₹1,050.

Sector Rally

SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel said metal stocks rose 8–9% last week, with the Nifty Metal index up 5.75%. 

He noted that JSW Steel has been climbing steadily, making higher highs and higher lows, and recently broke above a rising trendline on strong volume, pointing to a sign that buyers are still in charge and the rally may have more room to run.

Macro Drivers

Pal highlighted that India's steel demand is expected to post double-digit growth in the second half of FY26, supported by infrastructure expansion and GST tailwinds. 

He noted that Morgan Stanley upgraded JSW Steel to 'Overweight,' citing expanding steel spreads, robust domestic demand, and benefits from China's supply controls. India's steelmakers have outperformed globally, with output rising 33% between 2019 and 2024, and JSW Steel's production jumped 17% year-on-year in August.

Headwinds And Catalysts

Pal said the government is considering a sharp increase in the import quota for metallurgical coke to relieve raw material pressures faced by Indian steelmakers. 

He added that incentives for green steel could give the industry a steadier and more sustainable base over time. 

Meanwhile, Chandel pointed to a mix of tailwinds at home and abroad - from China's pullback on supply and a softer U.S. dollar to GST cuts making cars and household goods cheaper, all of which support demand. Hopes for a U.S.-India trade deal are also helping keep sentiment upbeat.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was 'bullish' amid 'normal' message volume.

JSW Steel's stock has risen 21.5% so far in 2025.

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